Public-sector bankHistorical case study · data as of 08 Jul 2026 · published 11 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Punjab National Bank — 100-point case study
How Punjab National Bank looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 08 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Screener tables are consolidated; the bank metrics (NPA, NIM, CASA, capital) are PNB's standalone figures from its results releases, so profit numbers differ slightly between the two.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 08 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -0.20%/day
Bearish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.20% a day — a short-term downtrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -5.2%
Bearish
The 100-session trend line was down (-0.18%/day) and the stock was -5.2% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -9.9%
Neutral
Compared with a year earlier the price was -9.9%. Little net progress over twelve months.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 105.47 / 30W 114.08
Bearish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 110.50→110.20; lows 102.67→104.37
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
13.6
Neutral
ADX at 13.6 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 15.8 / –DI 32.7
Bearish
–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
106.93 (-5.6%)
Bearish
Close of 100.95 was 5.6% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
106.37 (-5.1%)
Bearish
Close of 100.95 was 5.1% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
115.61 (-12.7%)
Bearish
Close of 100.95 was 12.7% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 104.95 / 21E 106.08
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 03 Jul 2026.
The 50-day average was 8.0% below the 200-day. The most recent signal was a death cross on 28 Apr 2026.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-1.1% in 20 sessions
Bearish
The 50-day average fell 1.1% over the past month — declining.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
107 / 106 / 111 / 116
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
104.72 (-3.6%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 104.72; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
32.2
Bearish
RSI at 32.2 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
bearish divergence
Caution
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bearish divergence: price made a higher high but RSI made a lower high.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -0.84 / signal -0.15
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-0.12 → -0.69
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B -0.22 (bands 102.77–111.10)
Caution
%B of -0.22 — close below the lower band, an overextended drop.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 7.8% (16th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 16th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹2.24 (2.2% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹2.24, or 2.2% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
21.1% vs 1Y 27.4%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 21.1%, below the one-year level of 27.4%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
101.69–110.39
Bearish
The close was below the lower channel — a strong trending push.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.38
Neutral
A beta of 1.38 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 1.56× / 5-day 1.07×
Neutral
The final session traded 1.56× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.07× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 0.96
Neutral
Average volume on up days was 0.96× that on down days — balanced.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV falling
Bearish
OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹198 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
99.63 / 98.50
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 99.63, 1.3% below the close, then 98.50.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
105.19 / 108.28 / 110.81
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 105.19, 4.2% above the close, then 108.28, 110.81.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 103.23 | R1 106.02 | S1 98.17
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 103.23; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 107 | 38.2% 113 | 50.0% 117 | 61.8% 121
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 135.15 to 98.50, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 107.15.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 135.15 / L 98.50
Bearish
The close was 25.3% below the 52-week high and 2.5% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
2 open; latest gap-down 28 Apr at 113.42
Neutral
There were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 28 Apr 2026, left an open level at 113.42 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
falling channel
Bearish
Rule-based pattern scan: falling channel — successive lower highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 103.14–110.50
Bearish
The close was breakdown below the prior 20-day range of 103.14–110.50 — a range break.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Bearish marubozu-type candle
Bearish
On 08 Jul the candle opened 103.25, ranged 100.45–103.25 and closed 100.95: Bearish marubozu-type candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 105.30–108.31; Tenkan 104.72 / Kijun 105.47
Bearish
Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -7.8% / 3M -9.2%
Bearish
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 9.2 points over three months and underperformed by 7.8 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty Bank
3M -13.1%
Bearish
Against its sector index (Nifty Bank) the stock was 13.1 points behind over three months.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
0 bullish · 29 bearish · 16 neutral · 4 caution
Bearish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 99.63, resistance 105.19. This is a description of the chart on 08 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 08 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 08 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
6.3×
Neutral
At ₹100.95 the market valued the company at about ₹1,16,001 crore, or 6.3× the ₹18,467 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
0.77×
Neutral
Market cap was 0.77× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹1,49,973 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Revenue (interest earned)
0.89×
Neutral
Market cap was 0.89× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹1,30,772 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
Profit / Book (earnings power)
12.3%
Neutral
Trailing profit was 12.3% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 0.77× for.
How to read: Information only.
5
Earnings yield
15.9%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹15.9 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
0.08
Bullish
P/E of 6.3 divided by 3-year profit growth of 76.5% a year gives a PEG of 0.08. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
2.97%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹3 a share, a 2.97% yield on the ₹100.95 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹1,16,001 cr
Neutral
At about ₹1.16 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹217.24 vs ₹100.95
Bullish
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹217.24; the price was 54% below it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+5.5%
Neutral
Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹1,30,772 crore, +5.5% versus FY25.
NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 2.47% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank.
Bullish 3.5% or more · Bearish below 3.0% · Neutral 3.0–3.5%.
19
Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)
-3.5%
Bearish
Core interest income after interest expense was ₹10,380 crore, -3.5% year on year (standalone, as reported).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
3 strength(s) · 6 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Stock is trading at 0.86 times its book value; Company has delivered good profit growth of 48.2% CAGR over last 5 years; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 18.3%. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 9.80% over past five years; Company has a low return on equity of 12.4% over last 3 years; Contingent liabilities of Rs.5,24,629 Cr; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost; Promoter holding has decreased over last 3 years: -3.07%. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
11 bullish · 5 bearish · 33 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 08 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 6.3×, P/B 0.77×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 08 Apr 2026 – 08 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
05 May 2026PNB ends FY26 with a record net profit of Rs 16,904 crore as asset quality and capital strengthen — PNB reported Q4 FY26 net profit of Rs 5,225 crore, up 14.4% YoY; gross NPA 2.95% and net NPA 0.29% as of 31 Mar 2026; CRAR 17.74%; global advances up 12.7% and deposits up 9.2%. source
05 May 2026PNB posts over 14% YoY rise in Q4 PAT; clocks net interest income of Rs 10,380 crore — Q4 FY26 NII was Rs 10,380 crore, down 3.5% YoY from Rs 10,757 crore; profit before tax rose 10.3% to Rs 7,077 crore. source
06 May 2026Up to 25% upside: PNB share price targets post Q4 results — Brokerage notes after Q4 FY26 cite NIM of 2.47% (down 5 bps QoQ) and management FY27 guidance of 12-13% loan growth, RoA above 1% and credit cost below 0.4%. source
01 Jun 2026President Of India-Backed PSU Bank Keeps Lending Rates Unchanged For June 2026 — PNB kept MCLR unchanged across tenors from 1 June 2026 (one-year MCLR 8.75%); RLLR unchanged at 8.10%. source
12 Jun 2026PNB shares trade ex-dividend for FY26 dividend of Rs 3 per share — Yahoo Finance history shows a Rs 3 per share dividend with ex-date 12 June 2026. source
02 Jul 2026PNB Q1 Business Figures: Global Business Inches Closer to Rs 30 Lakh Crore Mark — Provisional Q1 FY27 update: global business Rs 29,99,876 crore (+10.32% YoY), global advances +12.85% and global deposits +8.52% YoY as of 30 June 2026. source
What happened next (08 Jul 2026 → 09 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹100.95 to ₹116.98 by 09 Oct 2026 (+15.9%) while the Nifty 50 moved -5.7% — outperforming by 21.6 points.
Highest ₹119.50 on 12 Aug 2026; lowest ₹100.80 on 09 Jul 2026.
S1 99.63: held on a closing basis.
S2 98.50: held on a closing basis.
R1 105.19: cleared on a closing basis on 10 Jul 2026.
R2 108.28: cleared on a closing basis on 20 Jul 2026.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and crossed above on 12 Aug 2026.
18 Jul 2026PNB Q1 FY27 results: net profit rises to Rs 5,253 crore — Standalone Q1 FY27 net profit Rs 5,253.29 crore vs Rs 1,675.00 crore a year earlier; gross NPA 2.78%, net NPA 0.28%, CRAR 18.13%. source
18 Jul 2026Punjab National Bank Share Price in Focus After Q1 FY27 Earnings Results: Net Profit Up 191.4% YoY — Consolidated Q1 FY27 net profit Rs 5,339.15 crore (+191.4% YoY); global advances up 12.7% and deposits up 8.5%. source
28 Sep 2026Bank Strike Deferred; PNB Branches to Function Normally — A proposed bank strike for 28-30 September 2026 was postponed; PNB said branches and services would operate as usual. source
03 Oct 2026PNB Global Business Hits Rs 31.20 Lakh Crore in Q2; Advances Up 14.8% YoY — Provisional Q2 FY27 update: global business Rs 31,19,790 crore (+11.95% YoY), global deposits +9.90% and global advances +14.80% YoY as of 30 Sep 2026. source
Educational summary. On 08 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved +15.9% against -5.7% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Punjab National Bank today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 11 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty Bank via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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