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Government power-sector lender (NBFC) Historical case study · data as of 08 Jul 2026 · published 11 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

REC — 100-point case study

How REC looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 08 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: RECLTD · BSE: 532955
Close on 08 Jul 2026	₹348.75
Market cap then	₹91,834 crore
Valuation	P/E 5.6× · P/B 1.09×
Momentum	RSI (14) 44 · 1-year return -11.7%
Next 3 months	-14.0% vs Nifty 50 -5.7% (to 09 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

7 bullish · 23 neutral · 2 caution · 17 bearish — the picture leaned negative.

Fundamental — 50 points

12 bullish · 32 neutral · 0 caution · 5 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Data note: REC is being merged into its parent PFC (boards approved 28 Jun 2026; 88 PFC shares per 100 REC shares; appointed date 1 Apr 2027, subject to approvals). Quarterly NIM shown is the company's full-year figure where no quarter-only figure was published.

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 08 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope +0.22%/day	Bullish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.22% a day — a short-term uptrend. Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +6.5%	Neutral	The 100-session trend line was up (+0.03%/day) and the stock was +6.5% over three months, so the medium-term picture was neutral. Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return -11.7%	Bearish	Compared with a year earlier the price was -11.7%. A weak year for the stock. Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 350.57 / 30W 352.06	Bearish	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week. Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 345.00→371.30; lows 328.15→321.00	Neutral	The two most recent swing points showed a higher high but a lower low — mixed structure. Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	22.4	Bearish	ADX at 22.4 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction. Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 20.3 / –DI 25.4	Bearish	–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement. Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	358.92 (-2.8%)	Bearish	Close of 348.75 was 2.8% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	351.20 (-0.7%)	Bearish	Close of 348.75 was 0.7% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	357.22 (-2.4%)	Bearish	Close of 348.75 was 2.4% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 360.05 / 21E 357.74	Bullish	The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 12 Jun 2026. Bullish 9-day above 21-day · Bearish 9-day below 21-day · No neutral zone.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bearish	The 50-day average was 1.7% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window. Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13	50-day SMA slope	+1.3% in 20 sessions	Bullish	The 50-day average rose 1.3% over the past month — rising. Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14	MA ribbon alignment	359 / 351 / 348 / 357	Neutral	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range. Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	362.75 (-3.9%)	Bearish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 362.75; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water. Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	43.6	Bearish	RSI at 43.6 reflected soft, below-average momentum. Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price. Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD 3.39 / signal 4.76	Bearish	MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative. Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	1.53 → -1.37	Bearish	The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening. Bullish histogram rising (momentum improving) · Bearish histogram falling (momentum weakening) · No neutral zone.
20	MACD vs zero line	3.39	Bullish	MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime. Bullish MACD above zero · Bearish MACD below zero · No neutral zone.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 29.4 / %D 50.9	Bearish	Slow stochastic at 29.4 was mid-range with %K below %D. Bullish between 20 and 80 with %K above %D · Bearish between 20 and 80 with %K below %D · Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
22	Williams %R (14)	-91.3	Caution	%R of -91.3 put the close near the bottom of its 14-day range. How to read: Caution above –20 (near the top) or below –80 (near the bottom). Neutral in the middle. This point is never tagged Bullish or Bearish.
23	CCI (20)	-82	Neutral	CCI at -82 was within the normal ±100 band. Bullish above +100 (unusually strong upward move) · Bearish below –100 (unusually strong downward move) · Neutral within ±100.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	-3.6%	Bearish	Price changed -3.6% over ten sessions. Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.21 (bands 341.49–376.34)	Neutral	%B of 0.21 — inside the bands, lower half. How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 9.7% (14th pct of 6M)	Caution	Band width was at the 14th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown). How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27	ATR (14)	₹8.40 (2.4% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹8.40, or 2.4% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect. How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	28.7% vs 1Y 26.7%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 28.7%, close to the one-year level of 26.7%. How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	341.38–374.62	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout. Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	1.31	Neutral	A beta of 1.31 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day. How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 1.38× / 5-day 0.96×	Neutral	The final session traded 1.38× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.96× — normal participation. How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 1.04	Neutral	Average volume on up days was 1.04× that on down days — balanced. Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV falling	Bearish	OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move. Bullish OBV rising · Bearish OBV falling · No neutral zone.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume. Bullish A/D line rising · Bearish A/D line falling · No neutral zone.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.11	Bearish	CMF at -0.11 indicated net outflows. Bullish above +0.05 (net inflows) · Bearish below –0.05 (net outflows) · Neutral between –0.05 and +0.05.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	48.3	Neutral	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 48.3. Bullish MFI 55–80 · Bearish MFI 20–45 · Neutral 45–55. Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹203 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹203 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid. How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	332.97 / 321.00 / 310.55	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 332.97, 4.7% below the close, then 321.00, 310.55. How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	352.03 / 378.96 / 406.05	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 352.03, 0.9% above the close, then 378.96, 406.05. How to read: Information only.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 355.87 \| R1 365.23 \| S1 339.38	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 355.87; the close was below it. How to read: Information only.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 324 \| 38.2% 336 \| 50.0% 346 \| 61.8% 356	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month fall from 387.80 to 304.05, the close was nearest the 50.0% retracement at 345.93. How to read: Information only.
42	52-week high / low	H 408.25 / L 304.05	Neutral	The close was 14.6% below the 52-week high and 14.7% above the 52-week low. Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	none	Neutral	No unfilled price gaps in the last six months. How to read: Information only.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	broad sideways range	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: broad sideways range. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.) Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 335.70–372.35	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 335.70–372.35. Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary red candle	Neutral	On 08 Jul the candle opened 353.75, ranged 346.50–358.50 and closed 348.75: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own. Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 345.75–346.85; Tenkan 359.43 / Kijun 346.68	Bullish	Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup. Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M -1.7% / 3M +2.5%	Bullish	The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 2.5 points over three months and underperformed by 1.7 points over one month. Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M +7.2%	Bullish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 7.2 points ahead of the Nifty 50. Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50	Technical summary	7 bullish · 17 bearish · 23 neutral · 2 caution	Bearish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 332.97, resistance 352.03. This is a description of the chart on 08 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 08 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 08 Jul 2026 close.

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	5.6×	Neutral	At ₹348.75 the market valued the company at about ₹91,834 crore, or 5.6× the ₹16,308 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms. How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2	Price / Book	1.09×	Neutral	Market cap was 1.09× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹84,496 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick. How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3	Price / Revenue (interest earned)	1.54×	Neutral	Market cap was 1.54× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹59,505 crore. How to read: Information only.
4	Profit / Book (earnings power)	19.3%	Neutral	Trailing profit was 19.3% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 1.09× for. How to read: Information only.
5	Earnings yield	17.8%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹17.8 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds. How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	0.42	Bullish	P/E of 5.6 divided by 3-year profit growth of 13.5% a year gives a PEG of 0.42. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	5.62%	Bullish	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹19.6 a share, a 5.62% yield on the ₹348.75 price. Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8	Market capitalisation	₹91,834 cr	Neutral	At about ₹0.92 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap. How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9	Graham number vs price	₹668.68 vs ₹348.75	Bullish	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹668.68; the price was 48% below it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number. Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+5.7%	Neutral	Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹59,586 crore, +5.7% versus FY25. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% (revenue fell) · Neutral 0–10%.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	-5.0%	Bearish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹14,564 crore of revenue, -5.0% on the same quarter a year earlier. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+2.7%	Neutral	FY26 net profit was ₹16,308 crore, +2.7% on FY25's ₹15,884 crore. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	-21.7%	Bearish	Quarterly profit was ₹3,375 crore versus ₹4,310 crore a year earlier (-21.7%). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	14.7%	Bullish	Revenue compounded at 14.7% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	13.5%	Bullish	Net profit compounded at 13.5% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	10.9%	Neutral	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 10.9% a year. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+2.7%	Neutral	Reported EPS went from ₹60.32 to ₹61.93 (+2.7%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Net interest margin (Q4 FY26)	3.43%	Neutral	NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 3.43% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank. Bullish 3.5% or more · Bearish below 3.0% · Neutral 3.0–3.5%.
19	Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)	n/a	Neutral	Core interest income after interest expense was ₹4,961 crore, n/a year on year (standalone, as reported). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 5% · Neutral 5–10%.
20	Net profit margin FY26	27.4%	Neutral	₹27.4 of every ₹100 of interest-led revenue ended up as net profit in FY26. How to read: Information only.
21	Return on equity FY26	20.1%	Bullish	FY26 profit was 20.1% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak. Bullish above 18% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–18%. Around 15% or more is generally considered good.
22	Leverage (assets ÷ equity)	7.6×	Neutral	Total assets were 7.6× equity — normal for banks, which fund most assets with deposits. How to read: Information only — banks normally run high leverage.
23	Return on assets FY26	2.55%	Bullish	Net profit was 2.55% of total assets. For banks, ROA above 1% is considered healthy. Bullish banks only: 1.5% or more · Bearish banks only: below 1% · Information only for non-banks.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	21%	Neutral	The company paid about 21% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%. How to read: Information only. India’s base corporate rate is about 25%.
25	Q4 FY26 standalone profit (reported)	₹3,375 cr (-21.7%)	Bearish	The bank's own (standalone) Jan–Mar 2026 profit as reported was ₹3,375 crore, -21.7% year on year. Bullish above 12% year on year · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–12%.

D. Asset quality & capital

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Gross NPA (Q4 FY26)	n/a	Neutral	Not reported in our sources for this period. Bullish below 2% · Bearish above 4% · Neutral 2–4%.
27	Net NPA (Q4 FY26)	0.12%	Bullish	After provisions, net NPAs were 0.12% of loans. Bullish below 0.6% · Bearish above 1.5% · Neutral 0.6–1.5%.
28	CASA ratio	n/a	Neutral	Not reported in our sources for this period. Bullish above 40% · Bearish below 30% · Neutral 30–40%.
29	Capital adequacy (CRAR)	23.11%	Bullish	Capital adequacy was 23.11%, comfortably above the RBI minimum of 11.5% (incl. buffer). Bullish above 16% · Bearish below 13% · Neutral 13–16%. RBI minimum incl. buffer is 11.5%.
30	Loan (advances) growth	+3.0%	Bearish	Advances grew +3.0% year on year (as reported). Bullish above 14% · Bearish below 8% · Neutral 8–14%.
31	Deposit growth	n/a	Neutral	Not reported in our sources for this period. Bullish above 12% · Bearish below 7% · Neutral 7–12%.
32	Borrowings (consolidated)	₹5,15,284 cr	Neutral	Borrowings were ₹5,15,284 crore at Mar 2026 — lenders that don't take deposits fund their loans this way. How to read: Information only.
33	Book value growth	+8.6%	Neutral	Equity grew +8.6% to ₹84,496 crore — banks need book growth to support loan growth. Bullish above 10% (banks: above 12%) · Bearish below 0% (non-banks only) · Neutral otherwise.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹5,972 cr	Neutral	Operating cash flow was ₹5,972 crore. For banks this swings with deposit and loan flows, so it says little about profitability. Bullish positive and higher than the year before · Bearish negative · Neutral when positive but lower. Information only for banks.
35	Investing cash flow FY26	₹-3,308 cr	Neutral	Investing flows for banks mostly reflect securities and fixed-asset purchases. How to read: Information only — for banks these swing with deposit and loan flows.
36	Financing cash flow FY26	₹-2,375 cr	Neutral	Financing flows reflect borrowings raised/repaid and dividends paid. How to read: Information only — for banks these swing with deposit and loan flows.
37	Net cash flow FY26	₹289 cr	Neutral	Overall cash and balances changed by ₹289 crore in FY26. How to read: Information only — for banks these swing with deposit and loan flows.
38	Investment book growth	+47.3%	Neutral	The investment portfolio (mostly government securities) moved +47.3% to ₹9,831 crore. How to read: Information only.
39	Loan growth minus deposit growth	n/a	Neutral	Not available. How to read: Caution when loans grew more than 4 points faster than deposits (funding pressure). Neutral otherwise.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	30%	Neutral	The company paid out about 30% of FY26 profit as dividends. How to read: Information only. High payout suits mature businesses; growing firms often keep more.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	30% / 30% / 30%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year. Bullish paid every year · Neutral when irregular. Never tagged Bearish.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.0%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹2,633 cr → ₹2,633 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution. Bullish fell 1% or more (a buyback) · Caution when it rose 1% or more (new shares issued). Neutral when unchanged, or for a bonus/split.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	52.63% (+0.00 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 52.63% at Mar 2026 versus 52.63% a year earlier. Bearish fell more than 1 percentage point in a year · Neutral otherwise. Never tagged Bullish.
44	Foreign institutional holding	15.79% (-4.69 pts YoY)	Bearish	FIIs held 15.79% at Mar 2026, down from 20.48% a year before. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
45	Domestic institutional holding	16.36% (+1.57 pts YoY)	Bullish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 16.36%, up from 14.79%. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
46	Number of shareholders	12.1 lakh (+11.6% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 10.8 lakh to 12.1 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest. How to read: Information only — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares. How to read: Information only. Any sizeable pledge is a risk to note.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 7 tests)	7/7	Bullish	Passed: positive profit, profit grew, ROA ≥ 1%, net NPA < 1%, CRAR ≥ 14%, ROE ≥ 12%, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49	Automated screen flags	3 strength(s) · 3 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Stock is trading at 0.93 times its book value; Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 6.18%; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 29.9%. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 11.0% over past five years; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.) How to read: Information only.
50	Fundamental summary	12 bullish · 5 bearish · 32 neutral · 0 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 08 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 5.6×, P/B 1.09×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 08 Apr 2026 – 08 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

28 Apr 2026 REC Net Profit Drops 22% To ₹3,375 Cr In Q4 — REC reported Q4 FY26 consolidated net profit of Rs 3,375.08 crore vs Rs 4,309.98 crore a year earlier; FY26 consolidated profit Rs 16,308 crore; loan book Rs 5.84 lakh crore; final dividend Rs 1.55 per share. source
29 Apr 2026 REC Q4 FY26 Results: Net Profits Crash 21% YoY — Article reports Q4 interest income down 5.5% YoY to Rs 14,119 crore and cites Morgan Stanley noting a Q4 NIM of 3.55%, below its expectations, and AUM growth of 3% YoY. source
06 May 2026 PFC REC Merger Timeline Targets April 2027 Completion as Government Pushes PSU Consolidation — Citing media reports, the planned merger of REC into PFC, announced in Budget 2026, targets completion by 1 April 2027 subject to approvals including presidential consent, SEBI, RBI, exchanges and NCLT. source
16 May 2026 REC board approves merger with Power Finance Corporation — REC's board approved in principle a proposal to merge REC into PFC, subject to approval of the President of India and other regulatory consents; swap ratio to be set by valuers. source
11 Jun 2026 REC Receives Presidential Approval for Merger with Power Finance Corporation — REC disclosed on 10 June 2026 that the Ministry of Power had conveyed the competent authority's approval for its merger with PFC; shares traded 2.3% lower the next morning. source
28 Jun 2026 PFC, REC Boards Approve Merger With Share Exchange Ratio At 88 PFC Shares For Every 100 REC Shares — Boards of PFC and REC approved the merger scheme on 28 June 2026; REC holders to receive 88 PFC shares per 100 REC shares; combined loan book over Rs 11 lakh crore; record date to be announced; subject to shareholder, creditor and regulatory approvals. source

What happened next (08 Jul 2026 → 09 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹348.75 to ₹300.00 by 09 Oct 2026 (-14.0%) while the Nifty 50 moved -5.7% — underperforming by 8.3 points.
Highest ₹378.70 on 29 Jul 2026; lowest ₹286.20 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 332.97: broken on a closing basis on 20 Aug 2026.
S2 321.00: broken on a closing basis on 27 Aug 2026.
R1 352.03: cleared on a closing basis on 14 Jul 2026.
R2 378.96: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and crossed above on 20 Jul 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 24 Jul 2026): reported profit ₹4,193 crore (n/a% YoY), NIM 3.34%, gross NPA 0.23%, net NPA 0.11%.

Later news

24 Jul 2026 REC Ltd Q1 FY27 Net Profit Rises To ₹4,192.76 Crore, Interim Dividend Of ₹4.25 Declared — Q1 FY27 consolidated net profit Rs 4,192.76 crore vs Rs 3,375.08 crore in Q4 FY26 (standalone Rs 4,149.46 crore, down 6.77% YoY); first interim dividend Rs 4.25 with record date 31 July 2026. source
27 Jul 2026 REC Q1 FY27 Net Profit Rises 23 Percent to INR 4,149 Crore, NII at INR 5,212 Crore — Standalone Q1 FY27 NII Rs 5,212 crore vs Rs 4,961 crore in the prior quarter; NIM 3.34%; net Stage-3 0.11%; CRAR 23.06%; loan book Rs 5.90 lakh crore; net worth Rs 91,836 crore. source
16 Aug 2026 REC Ltd support zone 320-330 after dividend record date — Shares fell about 3.3% to around Rs 335 on 14 August 2026, the record date for the Rs 1.55 FY26 final dividend; article also notes a parliamentary committee asked REC to expedite resolution of three stressed projects with Rs 1,384 crore exposure. source
25 Aug 2026 REC Limited Holds 57th Annual General Meeting and launches 3rd edition of ESG report — REC held its 57th AGM by video conference on 25 August 2026, reviewed FY26 (sanctions Rs 4.09 lakh crore, disbursements Rs 2.11 lakh crore, loan assets Rs 5.84 lakh crore) and said the PFC merger is underway. source

Educational summary. On 08 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -14.0% against -5.7% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold REC today.

Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 11 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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