Cement makerHistorical case study · data as of 07 Jul 2026 · published 10 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Ambuja Cements — 100-point case study
How Ambuja Cements looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 07 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Financials are Screener's standalone figures because the consolidated page was out of date. Ambuja absorbed Sanghi and Penna Cement during the period, so the four FY26 quarters do not add up exactly to the full-year figures as shown on Screener, and the Mar 2026 quarter includes a large tax credit. Mergers with Orient Cement and ACC were in progress after the snapshot.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 07 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.24%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.24% a day — a short-term uptrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +4.2%
Bearish
The 100-session trend line was down (-0.19%/day) and the stock was +4.2% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -26.4%
Bearish
Compared with a year earlier the price was -26.4%. A weak year for the stock.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 432.99 / 30W 470.33
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 462.00→435.90; lows 404.80→414.00
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
11.4
Neutral
ADX at 11.4 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 27.2 / –DI 18.4
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
424.92 (+2.6%)
Bullish
Close of 435.90 was 2.6% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
433.83 (+0.5%)
Bullish
Close of 435.90 was 0.5% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
502.43 (-13.2%)
Bearish
Close of 435.90 was 13.2% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 431.59 / 21E 429.15
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 03 Jul 2026.
The 50-day average was 13.7% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-0.9% in 20 sessions
Bearish
The 50-day average fell 0.9% over the past month — declining.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
425 / 434 / 450 / 502
Bearish
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bearish (20 < 50 < 100 < 200).
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
432.31 (+0.8%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 432.31; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
53.9
Neutral
RSI at 53.9 was in the neutral 45–55 zone.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 0.77 / signal -1.80
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
0.47 → 2.57
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.80 (bands 406.41–443.42)
Neutral
%B of 0.80 — inside the bands, upper half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 8.7% (36th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 36th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹10.52 (2.4% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹10.52, or 2.4% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
29.8% vs 1Y 26.8%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 29.8%, close to the one-year level of 26.8%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
408.86–449.43
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.52
Neutral
A beta of 1.52 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.42× / 5-day 1.25×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.42× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.25× — heavier than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 1.54
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 1.54× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹131 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
423.11 / 404.80 / 394.00
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 423.11, 3.0% below the close, then 404.80, 394.00.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
461.12 / 573.60 / 624.88
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 461.12, 5.8% above the close, then 573.60, 624.88.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 433.02 | R1 447.93 | S1 420.98
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 433.02; the close was above it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 436 | 38.2% 462 | 50.0% 484 | 61.8% 505
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month fall from 573.10 to 394.00, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 436.27.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 624.95 / L 394.00
Neutral
The close was 30.3% below the 52-week high and 10.6% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
1 open; latest gap-down 02 Mar at 499.00
Neutral
There was 1 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 02 Mar 2026, left an open level at 499.00 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 404.80–445.05
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 404.80–445.05.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Bearish marubozu-type candle
Bearish
On 07 Jul the candle opened 444.00, ranged 434.55–444.00 and closed 435.90: Bearish marubozu-type candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 432.68–443.25; Tenkan 430.10 / Kijun 428.40
Neutral
Price was inside the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — an undecided Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -0.0% / 3M -3.3%
Bearish
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 3.3 points over three months and underperformed by 0.0 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M -15.1%
Bearish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 15.1 points behind the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
15 bullish · 9 bearish · 24 neutral · 1 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 423.11, resistance 461.12. This is a description of the chart on 07 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 07 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 07 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
28.5×
Neutral
At ₹435.90 the market valued the company at about ₹1,07,843 crore, or 28.5× the ₹3,788 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
2.05×
Neutral
Market cap was 2.05× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹52,558 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
4.38×
Neutral
The company was valued at 4.38× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹24,623 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
37.4×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹833 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 37.4× trailing operating profit of ₹2,908 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
3.5%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹3.5 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
2.43
Bearish
P/E of 28.5 divided by 3-year profit growth of 11.7% a year gives a PEG of 2.43. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
0.46%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹2 a share, a 0.46% yield on the ₹435.90 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹1,07,843 cr
Neutral
At about ₹1.08 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹270.53 vs ₹435.90
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹270.53; the price was 61% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+17.9%
Bullish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹25,062 crore, +17.9% versus FY25.
Revenue compounded at 7.8% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15
Profit CAGR (3 years)
11.7%
Neutral
Net profit compounded at 11.7% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
n/a
Neutral
Not available. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2023, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17
EPS growth FY26 (reported)
+25.1%
Bullish
Reported EPS went from ₹11.51 to ₹14.40 (+25.1%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
1 strength(s) · 2 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company is almost debt free. Weaknesses: Tax rate seems low; Company has a low return on equity of 7.19% over last 3 years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
11 bullish · 6 bearish · 31 neutral · 1 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 07 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 28.5×, P/B 2.05×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 07 Apr 2026 – 07 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
04 May 2026Ambuja Cements reports Q4 FY26 and FY26 results; record annual volume of 73.7 MnT — Q4 FY26 consolidated revenue Rs 10,915 Cr (up 9% YoY), volume 19.9 MnT (up 10%), operating EBITDA Rs 1,464 Cr (13.4% margin). FY26 revenue Rs 40,656 Cr, EBITDA Rs 6,539 Cr. Board recommended dividend of Rs 2 per share; company stated it is debt-free. source
04 May 2026Q4 FY26 consolidated net profit rises 78% to Rs 1,830 crore aided by tax credit — Reported Q4 profit of Rs 1,830 Cr included a tax credit of about Rs 1,460 Cr; record date for the Rs 2 dividend set as 12 June 2026. source
11 May 2026Ambuja Cements breaks ground on new grinding plant in Madhya Pradesh — New plant at Mawan village near Guna, investment of INR 10.59 bn, to be built in two phases with the first expected operational by 2028. source
03 Jun 2026Ambuja Cements to pace capacity additions, focus on utilisation — CEO said priority is stabilising newly commissioned plants; company remains on track for 119 Mta capacity by end of FY27 from 109 Mta at end of FY26. source
22 Jun 2026Ambuja Cements partners with Leilac on carbon-capture demonstration — Demonstration project at the Sanghipuram plant in Kutch, Gujarat, to test carbon capture and hybrid electric heating. source
26 Jun 2026Ambuja Cements holds 43rd Annual General Meeting — 43rd AGM held on 26 June 2026; voting results and scrutinizer's report filed on 29 June 2026. source
What happened next (07 Jul 2026 → 09 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹435.90 to ₹351.50 by 09 Oct 2026 (-19.4%) while the Nifty 50 moved -7.7% — underperforming by 11.7 points.
Highest ₹450.50 on 05 Aug 2026; lowest ₹341.00 on 08 Oct 2026.
S1 423.11: broken on a closing basis on 08 Jul 2026.
S2 404.80: broken on a closing basis on 31 Aug 2026.
R1 461.12: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 573.60: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 28 Jul 2026): revenue ₹6,328 crore (+2.9% YoY), net profit ₹504 crore (-36.8% YoY), operating margin 15% vs 17% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
20 Jul 2026NCLT directs Ambuja shareholder meeting on Orient Cement merger — NCLT Ahmedabad Bench directed a meeting of equity shareholders on 28 September 2026 to consider the amalgamation of Orient Cement into Ambuja; creditor meetings waived. source
28 Jul 2026Ambuja Cements reports Q1 FY27 results — Consolidated revenue Rs 9,500 Cr vs Rs 10,289 Cr a year earlier; volume 17.1 MnT vs 18.4 MnT; operating EBITDA Rs 1,589 Cr (16.7% margin); PAT Rs 660 Cr vs Rs 1,041 Cr. Company remains debt-free. source
11 Aug 2026Ambuja Cements adds 1.2 Mta grinding capacity at Dahej, Gujarat — Brownfield expansion by subsidiary Adani Cement Industries raises consolidated cement capacity to 110.05 Mta. source
16 Sep 2026Ambuja Cements schedules analyst and investor meetings on 21-22 September — Company to attend JP Morgan India Conference and Anand Rathi conference in Mumbai; discussions limited to public information. source
28 Sep 2026Ambuja shareholders approve amalgamation of Orient Cement — At the NCLT-convened meeting, 99.98% of votes polled (99.93% of public shareholder votes) were in favour of the scheme of amalgamation of Orient Cement into Ambuja. source
Educational summary. On 07 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -19.4% against -7.7% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Ambuja Cements today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 10 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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