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Railway financier (government NBFC) Historical case study · data as of 07 Jul 2026 · published 10 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

IRFC — 100-point case study

How IRFC looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 07 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: IRFC · BSE: 543257
Close on 07 Jul 2026	₹89.92
Market cap then	₹1,17,749 crore
Valuation	P/E 16.8× · P/B 2.07×
Momentum	RSI (14) 33 · 1-year return -35.1%
Next 3 months	-16.9% vs Nifty 50 -7.7% (to 09 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

1 bullish · 17 neutral · 3 caution · 28 bearish — the picture leaned negative.

Fundamental — 50 points

5 bullish · 40 neutral · 0 caution · 4 bearish — the picture was mixed.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Data note: Prices come from equitypandit.com (cross-checked with stockanalysis.com) and are not dividend-adjusted. Financials are standalone. The government sold part of its stake through offers for sale in Feb and Jun 2026.

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 07 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope -0.45%/day	Bearish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.45% a day — a short-term downtrend. Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return -2.1%	Bearish	The 100-session trend line was down (-0.13%/day) and the stock was -2.1% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bearish. Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return -35.1%	Bearish	Compared with a year earlier the price was -35.1%. A weak year for the stock. Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 96.47 / 30W 104.96	Bearish	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week. Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 101.08→101.20; lows 95.17→92.67	Neutral	The two most recent swing points showed a higher high but a lower low — mixed structure. Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	21.8	Bearish	ADX at 21.8 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction. Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 17.9 / –DI 32.5	Bearish	–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement. Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	94.63 (-5.0%)	Bearish	Close of 89.92 was 5.0% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	98.20 (-8.4%)	Bearish	Close of 89.92 was 8.4% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	110.69 (-18.8%)	Bearish	Close of 89.92 was 18.8% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 91.66 / 21E 93.93	Bearish	The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 24 Jun 2026. Bullish 9-day above 21-day · Bearish 9-day below 21-day · No neutral zone.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bearish	The 50-day average was 11.3% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window. Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13	50-day SMA slope	-1.2% in 20 sessions	Bearish	The 50-day average fell 1.2% over the past month — declining. Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14	MA ribbon alignment	95 / 98 / 100 / 111	Bearish	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bearish (20 < 50 < 100 < 200). Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	90.76 (-0.9%)	Bearish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 90.76; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water. Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	33.4	Bearish	RSI at 33.4 reflected soft, below-average momentum. Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price. Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD -2.22 / signal -1.71	Bearish	MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative. Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	-0.67 → -0.51	Bullish	The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving. Bullish histogram rising (momentum improving) · Bearish histogram falling (momentum weakening) · No neutral zone.
20	MACD vs zero line	-2.22	Bearish	MACD below zero means the 12-day EMA was below the 26-day EMA — a negative momentum regime. Bullish MACD above zero · Bearish MACD below zero · No neutral zone.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 3.9 / %D 5.0	Caution	Slow stochastic at 3.9 was in oversold territory (<20). Bullish between 20 and 80 with %K above %D · Bearish between 20 and 80 with %K below %D · Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
22	Williams %R (14)	-97.2	Caution	%R of -97.2 put the close near the bottom of its 14-day range. How to read: Caution above –20 (near the top) or below –80 (near the bottom). Neutral in the middle. This point is never tagged Bullish or Bearish.
23	CCI (20)	-91	Neutral	CCI at -91 was within the normal ±100 band. Bullish above +100 (unusually strong upward move) · Bearish below –100 (unusually strong downward move) · Neutral within ±100.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	-10.9%	Bearish	Price changed -10.9% over ten sessions. Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.20 (bands 86.76–102.49)	Neutral	%B of 0.20 — inside the bands, lower half. How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 16.6% (67th pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 67th percentile of the last six months, a normal level. How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27	ATR (14)	₹2.02 (2.2% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹2.02, or 2.2% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect. How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	27.8% vs 1Y 28.9%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 27.8%, close to the one-year level of 28.9%. How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	90.01–97.57	Bearish	The close was below the lower channel — a strong trending push. Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	1.35	Neutral	A beta of 1.35 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day. How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.40× / 5-day 0.60×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.40× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.60× — lighter than usual participation. How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 0.54	Bearish	Average volume on up days was 0.54× that on down days — distribution-leaning. Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV falling	Bearish	OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move. Bullish OBV rising · Bearish OBV falling · No neutral zone.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume. Bullish A/D line rising · Bearish A/D line falling · No neutral zone.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.21	Bearish	CMF at -0.21 indicated net outflows. Bullish above +0.05 (net inflows) · Bearish below –0.05 (net outflows) · Neutral between –0.05 and +0.05.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	19.8	Caution	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 19.8 — oversold. Bullish MFI 55–80 · Bearish MFI 20–45 · Neutral 45–55. Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹162 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹162 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid. How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	89.69 / 87.00	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 89.69, 0.3% below the close, then 87.00. How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	101.14 / 103.10 / 107.61	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 101.14, 12.5% above the close, then 103.10, 107.61. How to read: Information only.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 90.48 \| R1 91.36 \| S1 89.04	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 90.48; the close was below it. How to read: Information only.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 97 \| 38.2% 103 \| 50.0% 108 \| 61.8% 113	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month fall from 129.75 to 87.00, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 97.09. How to read: Information only.
42	52-week high / low	H 142.60 / L 87.00	Bearish	The close was 36.9% below the 52-week high and 3.4% above the 52-week low. Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	3 open; latest gap-down 24 Jun at 98.20	Neutral	There were 3 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 24 Jun 2026, left an open level at 98.20 that price had not revisited. How to read: Information only.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	falling channel	Bearish	Rule-based pattern scan: falling channel — successive lower highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.) Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 89.60–101.20	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 89.60–101.20. Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary red candle	Neutral	On 07 Jul the candle opened 90.61, ranged 89.65–90.61 and closed 89.92: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own. Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 97.69–99.95; Tenkan 92.17 / Kijun 95.40	Bearish	Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup. Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M -11.2% / 3M -9.5%	Bearish	The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 9.5 points over three months and underperformed by 11.2 points over one month. Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M -21.9%	Bearish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 21.9 points behind the Nifty 50. Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50	Technical summary	1 bullish · 28 bearish · 17 neutral · 3 caution	Bearish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 89.69, resistance 101.14. This is a description of the chart on 07 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 07 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 07 Jul 2026 close.

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	16.8×	Neutral	At ₹89.92 the market valued the company at about ₹1,17,749 crore, or 16.8× the ₹7,009 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple. How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2	Price / Book	2.07×	Neutral	Market cap was 2.07× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹56,749 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick. How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3	Price / Revenue (interest earned)	4.32×	Neutral	Market cap was 4.32× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹27,284 crore. How to read: Information only.
4	Profit / Book (earnings power)	12.4%	Neutral	Trailing profit was 12.4% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 2.07× for. How to read: Information only.
5	Earnings yield	6.0%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹6.0 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds. How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	4.92	Bearish	P/E of 16.8 divided by 3-year profit growth of 3.4% a year gives a PEG of 4.92. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	2.34%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹2.1 a share, a 2.34% yield on the ₹89.92 price. Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8	Market capitalisation	₹1,17,749 cr	Neutral	At about ₹1.18 lakh crore the company was a large-cap. How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9	Graham number vs price	₹72.24 vs ₹89.92	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹72.24; the price was 24% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number. Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+0.5%	Neutral	Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹27,285 crore, +0.5% versus FY25. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% (revenue fell) · Neutral 0–10%.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+9.1%	Neutral	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹7,336 crore of revenue, +9.1% on the same quarter a year earlier. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+7.8%	Neutral	FY26 net profit was ₹7,009 crore, +7.8% on FY25's ₹6,502 crore. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	+0.1%	Neutral	Quarterly profit was ₹1,684 crore versus ₹1,682 crore a year earlier (+0.1%). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	4.5%	Bearish	Revenue compounded at 4.5% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	3.4%	Bearish	Net profit compounded at 3.4% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	11.6%	Neutral	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 11.6% a year. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+7.6%	Neutral	Reported EPS went from ₹4.98 to ₹5.36 (+7.6%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Net interest margin (Q4 FY26)	n/a	Neutral	Not reported in our sources. Bullish 3.5% or more · Bearish below 3.0% · Neutral 3.0–3.5%.
19	Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)	n/a	Neutral	Not available. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 5% · Neutral 5–10%.
20	Net profit margin FY26	25.7%	Neutral	₹25.7 of every ₹100 of interest-led revenue ended up as net profit in FY26. How to read: Information only.
21	Return on equity FY26	12.8%	Neutral	FY26 profit was 12.8% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak. Bullish above 18% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–18%. Around 15% or more is generally considered good.
22	Leverage (assets ÷ equity)	9.1×	Neutral	Total assets were 9.1× equity — normal for banks, which fund most assets with deposits. How to read: Information only — banks normally run high leverage.
23	Return on assets FY26	1.36%	Neutral	Net profit was 1.36% of total assets. For banks, ROA above 1% is considered healthy. Bullish banks only: 1.5% or more · Bearish banks only: below 1% · Information only for non-banks.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	0%	Neutral	The company paid about 0% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%. How to read: Information only. India’s base corporate rate is about 25%.
25	Q4 FY26 standalone profit (reported)	₹1,684 cr (+0.1%)	Neutral	The bank's own (standalone) Jan–Mar 2026 profit as reported was ₹1,684 crore, +0.1% year on year. Bullish above 12% year on year · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–12%.

D. Asset quality & capital

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Gross NPA (Q4 FY26)	0.00%	Bullish	Gross non-performing assets were 0.00% of loans — low by Indian standards. Bullish below 2% · Bearish above 4% · Neutral 2–4%.
27	Net NPA (Q4 FY26)	0.00%	Bullish	After provisions, net NPAs were 0.00% of loans. Bullish below 0.6% · Bearish above 1.5% · Neutral 0.6–1.5%.
28	CASA ratio	n/a	Neutral	Not reported in our sources for this period. Bullish above 40% · Bearish below 30% · Neutral 30–40%.
29	Capital adequacy (CRAR)	n/a	Neutral	Not reported in our sources for this period. Bullish above 16% · Bearish below 13% · Neutral 13–16%. RBI minimum incl. buffer is 11.5%.
30	Loan (advances) growth	n/a	Neutral	Not reported in our sources for this period. Bullish above 14% · Bearish below 8% · Neutral 8–14%.
31	Deposit growth	n/a	Neutral	Not reported in our sources for this period. Bullish above 12% · Bearish below 7% · Neutral 7–12%.
32	Borrowings (consolidated)	₹4,36,471 cr	Neutral	Borrowings were ₹4,36,471 crore at Mar 2026 — lenders that don't take deposits fund their loans this way. How to read: Information only.
33	Book value growth	+7.7%	Neutral	Equity grew +7.7% to ₹56,749 crore — banks need book growth to support loan growth. Bullish above 10% (banks: above 12%) · Bearish below 0% (non-banks only) · Neutral otherwise.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹-27,026 cr	Neutral	Operating cash flow was ₹-27,026 crore. For banks this swings with deposit and loan flows, so it says little about profitability. Bullish positive and higher than the year before · Bearish negative · Neutral when positive but lower. Information only for banks.
35	Investing cash flow FY26	₹-3 cr	Neutral	Investing flows for banks mostly reflect securities and fixed-asset purchases. How to read: Information only — for banks these swing with deposit and loan flows.
36	Financing cash flow FY26	₹21,560 cr	Neutral	Financing flows reflect borrowings raised/repaid and dividends paid. How to read: Information only — for banks these swing with deposit and loan flows.
37	Net cash flow FY26	₹-5,469 cr	Neutral	Overall cash and balances changed by ₹-5,469 crore in FY26. How to read: Information only — for banks these swing with deposit and loan flows.
38	Investment book growth	-26.3%	Neutral	The investment portfolio (mostly government securities) moved -26.3% to ₹28 crore. How to read: Information only.
39	Loan growth minus deposit growth	n/a	Neutral	Not available. How to read: Caution when loans grew more than 4 points faster than deposits (funding pressure). Neutral otherwise.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	39%	Neutral	The company paid out about 39% of FY26 profit as dividends. How to read: Information only. High payout suits mature businesses; growing firms often keep more.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	31% / 32% / 39%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year. Bullish paid every year · Neutral when irregular. Never tagged Bearish.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.0%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹13,069 cr → ₹13,069 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution. Bullish fell 1% or more (a buyback) · Caution when it rose 1% or more (new shares issued). Neutral when unchanged, or for a bonus/split.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	84.65% (-1.71 pts YoY)	Bearish	Promoters owned 84.65% at Mar 2026 versus 86.36% a year earlier. Bearish fell more than 1 percentage point in a year · Neutral otherwise. Never tagged Bullish.
44	Foreign institutional holding	1.16% (+0.18 pts YoY)	Neutral	FIIs held 1.16% at Mar 2026, up from 0.98% a year before. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
45	Domestic institutional holding	2.89% (+1.55 pts YoY)	Bullish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 2.89%, up from 1.34%. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
46	Number of shareholders	51.1 lakh (-9.3% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 56.4 lakh to 51.1 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest. How to read: Information only — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares. How to read: Information only. Any sizeable pledge is a risk to note.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 7 tests)	7/7	Bullish	Passed: positive profit, profit grew, ROA ≥ 1%, gross NPA < 3%, net NPA < 1%, ROE ≥ 12%, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49	Automated screen flags	1 strength(s) · 6 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 34.0%. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 11.6% over past five years; Tax rate seems low; Company has a low return on equity of 13.0% over last 3 years; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost; Company has high debtors of 5,136 days. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.) How to read: Information only.
50	Fundamental summary	5 bullish · 4 bearish · 40 neutral · 0 caution	Neutral	On the numbers published by 07 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture was mixed. Valuation: P/E 16.8×, P/B 2.07×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 07 Apr 2026 – 07 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

07 Apr 2026 IRFC disburses Rs 1,000 crore term loan to MAHAGENCO — IRFC sanctioned and released a Rs 1,000 crore term loan to Maharashtra State Power Generation Company; disbursal completed on 6 April 2026 per an exchange filing, described as its first lending transaction of FY27. source
14 May 2026 IRFC Q4 FY26 profit flat at Rs 1,684 crore; total income up 9% — Q4 net profit Rs 1,684 crore vs Rs 1,682 crore a year earlier; total income Rs 7,329 crore. FY26 net profit Rs 7,009 crore (+7.8%), AUM Rs 4.85 lakh crore, NIM 1.5%. source
24 May 2026 IRFC plans USD 2 billion ECB, mainly in yen, for FY27 — IRFC plans to raise USD 2 billion via external commercial borrowing as part of a Rs 70,000 crore resource plan; targets Rs 1 lakh crore sanctions and about Rs 40,000 crore disbursement in FY27. source
24 Jun 2026 Government launches OFS for up to 2% stake in IRFC at Rs 91 floor — Two-day offer for sale (24-25 June) of up to 26.14 crore shares at a floor price of Rs 91, a 7.49% discount to the previous close; government held 86.36% per the report and must reach 75% minimum public shareholding. source
30 Jun 2026 Government sells 1.75% stake in IRFC via OFS — Ministry of Railways sold 22.87 crore shares (1.75%) through the OFS; promoter holding fell from 84.65% to 82.90%. source
06 Jul 2026 IRFC signs yen ECB loan equivalent to USD 1.1 billion — Five-year ECB benchmarked to Overnight TONAR signed with a consortium of SBI, HDFC Bank, SMBC (GIFT City) and DBS; IRFC's first ECB of FY27. source

What happened next (07 Jul 2026 → 09 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹89.92 to ₹74.70 by 09 Oct 2026 (-16.9%) while the Nifty 50 moved -7.7% — underperforming by 9.2 points.
Highest ₹90.85 on 03 Aug 2026; lowest ₹74.06 on 09 Oct 2026.
S1 89.69: broken on a closing basis on 08 Jul 2026.
S2 87.00: broken on a closing basis on 18 Aug 2026.
R1 101.14: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 103.10: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and stayed on the same side through the period.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 30 Jul 2026): revenue ₹8,261 crore (+19.5% YoY), net profit ₹1,927 crore (+10.4% YoY) (Screener consolidated figures).

Later news

30 Jul 2026 IRFC Q1 FY27 net profit rises 10.4% to Rs 1,927 crore — Revenue from operations Rs 8,261 crore (+19.5% YoY); NIM 1.48% annualised; AUM Rs 4.79 lakh crore at 30 June; zero NPA position maintained. source
25 Aug 2026 IRFC board re-appoints two independent directors — Board meeting outcome filed with NSE: Pradeep Ahlawat and Manjula Mishra re-appointed as additional (non-official independent) directors effective 20 August 2026. source
07 Oct 2026 IRFC board to meet 15 October on Q2 results and interim dividend — Board to consider unaudited results for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 and a possible interim dividend for FY27; record date fixed as 23 October 2026, subject to board approval. source

Educational summary. On 07 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture was mixed. Over the next three months the stock moved -16.9% against -7.7% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold IRFC today.

Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 10 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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