Diversified conglomerate (cement, chemicals, VSF)Historical case study · data as of 02 Jul 2026 · published 05 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
Grasim Industries — 100-point case study
How Grasim Industries looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 02 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
9 bullish · 30 neutral · 1 caution · 9 bearish — the picture was mixed.
Price chart
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Daily prices from equitypandit.com (matched Yahoo and stockanalysis.com exactly on overlapping dates). Grasim's consolidated figures include UltraTech Cement, Aditya Birla Capital and other subsidiaries, so consolidated net profit includes large minority interests and differs from figures quoted in the news.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 02 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.10%/day
Neutral
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.10% a day — a flat, sideways phase.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +20.6%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.15%/day) and the stock was +20.6% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +11.2%
Bullish
Compared with a year earlier the price was +11.2%. A strong positive year.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 3,061.31 / 30W 2,858.55
Bullish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 3,197.50→3,200.00; lows 2,880.60→3,034.90
Bullish
The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
13.9
Neutral
ADX at 13.9 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 20.4 / –DI 15.9
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
3,120.83 (+1.5%)
Bullish
Close of 3,169.20 was 1.5% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
3,019.43 (+5.0%)
Bullish
Close of 3,169.20 was 5.0% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
2,843.43 (+11.5%)
Bullish
Close of 3,169.20 was 11.5% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 3,132.75 / 21E 3,113.07
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 10 Apr 2026.
The 50-day average was 6.2% above the 200-day. The most recent signal was a golden cross on 29 May 2026.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+6.5% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 6.5% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
3,121 / 3,019 / 2,885 / 2,843
Bullish
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bullish (20 > 50 > 100 > 200).
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
3,140.29 (+0.9%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 3,140.29; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
61.2
Bullish
RSI at 61.2 showed positive momentum without being overbought.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
bearish divergence
Caution
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bearish divergence: price made a higher high but RSI made a lower high.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 30.32 / signal 38.08
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-8.86 → -7.76
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.84 (bands 3,050.21–3,191.45)
Neutral
%B of 0.84 — inside the bands, upper half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 4.5% (11th pct of 6M)
Caution
Band width was at the 11th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown).
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹58.02 (1.8% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹58.02, or 1.8% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
21.9% vs 1Y 21.6%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 21.9%, close to the one-year level of 21.6%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
3,003.35–3,227.65
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
1.09
Neutral
A beta of 1.09 means the stock tended to move roughly in line with the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.65× / 5-day 1.12×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.65× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.12× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 0.88
Neutral
Average volume on up days was 0.88× that on down days — balanced.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
Measuring the 6-month rise from 2,502.50 to 3,200.00, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 3,035.39.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 3,200.00 / L 2,502.50
Bullish
The close was 1.0% below the 52-week high and 26.6% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
3 open; latest gap-up 21 May at 2,988.00
Neutral
There were 3 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 21 May 2026, left an open level at 2,988.00 that price had not revisited.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
tight consolidation
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: tight consolidation (20-day range only 5.2%). (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 3,034.90–3,200.00
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 3,034.90–3,200.00.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary green candle
Neutral
On 02 Jul the candle opened 3,153.00, ranged 3,134.40–3,173.90 and closed 3,169.20: Ordinary green candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -0.6% / 3M +14.6%
Bullish
The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 14.6 points over three months and underperformed by 0.6 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +19.8%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 19.8 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
23 bullish · 3 bearish · 21 neutral · 2 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 3,072.13, resistance 3,194.50. This is a description of the chart on 02 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 02 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 02 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
21.2×
Neutral
At ₹3,169.20 the market valued the company at about ₹2,15,676 crore, or 21.2× the ₹10,186 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
2.08×
Neutral
Market cap was 2.08× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹1,03,470 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
1.23×
Neutral
The company was valued at 1.23× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹1,75,431 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
12.2×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹2,27,853 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 12.2× trailing operating profit of ₹36,237 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
4.7%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹4.7 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
n/m
Neutral
PEG is not meaningful because 3-year profit growth was -2.4%.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
0.32%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹10 a share, a 0.32% yield on the ₹3,169.20 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹2,15,676 cr
Neutral
At about ₹2.16 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹2,262.81 vs ₹3,169.20
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹2,262.81; the price was 40% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+18.2%
Bullish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹1,75,431 crore, +18.2% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
0 strength(s) · 2 weakness(es)
Neutral
No strengths flagged. Weaknesses: Company has a low return on equity of 5.21% over last 3 years; Dividend payout has been low at 14.6% of profits over last 3 years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
9 bullish · 9 bearish · 30 neutral · 1 caution
Neutral
On the numbers published by 02 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture was mixed. Valuation: P/E 21.2×, P/B 2.08×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 02 Apr 2026 – 02 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
05 May 2026NCLAT sets aside Rs 301.61 crore CCI penalty on Grasim, remands matter — The NCLAT set aside the Rs 301.61 crore penalty imposed by the CCI in 2020 relating to Grasim's viscose staple fibre business and remanded the matter to the CCI for a fresh hearing; the company had made no provision for the penalty. source
20 May 2026Grasim Q4 FY26 consolidated net profit up 28% to Rs 3,802 crore; Rs 10 dividend — Grasim reported Q4 FY26 consolidated net profit of about Rs 3,802 crore versus Rs 2,973 crore a year earlier; FY26 revenue rose 18% to Rs 1,75,431 crore and net profit to Rs 10,300 crore. The board recommended a dividend of Rs 10 per share. source
08 Jun 2026Grasim approves Rs 3,094 crore Lyocell capacity expansion at Harihar — Grasim approved an investment of Rs 3,094 crore to add 110,000 tonnes per annum of Lyocell fibre capacity at its Harihar, Karnataka plant in two phases. source
16 Jun 2026Grasim inaugurates Phase 1 of CPVC resin plant at Vilayat — Grasim inaugurated Phase 1 of its CPVC resin plant at Vilayat, Gujarat, with 50,000 tonnes per annum capacity, in collaboration with Lubrizol Advanced Materials India. source
23 Jun 2026Grasim invests Rs 2,880 crore in Aditya Birla Capital — Grasim invested about Rs 2,879.99 crore to subscribe to additional shares of subsidiary Aditya Birla Capital, marginally raising its holding (reported as 52.27% to 52.30%). source
What happened next (02 Jul 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹3,169.20 to ₹2,962.00 by 01 Oct 2026 (-6.5%) while the Nifty 50 moved -7.3% — outperforming by 0.7 points.
Highest ₹3,411.10 on 10 Aug 2026; lowest ₹2,944.40 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 3,072.13: broken on a closing basis on 30 Sep 2026.
S2 2,887.15: held on a closing basis.
R1 3,194.50: cleared on a closing basis on 06 Jul 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 01 Oct 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 12 Aug 2026): revenue ₹48,716 crore (+21.4% YoY), net profit ₹3,846 crore (+38.8% YoY), operating margin 23% vs 22% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
13 Jul 2026Aditya Birla Renewables to acquire Solenergi Power for Rs 17,200 crore — Grasim's subsidiary Aditya Birla Renewables agreed to acquire Solenergi Power from Shell for Rs 17,200 crore, adding about 5.0 GWp of renewable capacity (3.3 GWp operational, 1.7 GWp under construction). source
12 Aug 2026Grasim Q1 FY27: revenue up 21% to Rs 48,716 crore, record EBITDA of Rs 8,077 crore — Grasim reported Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue of Rs 48,716 crore (up 21% YoY), record consolidated EBITDA of Rs 8,077 crore (up 26%) and adjusted PAT of Rs 2,153 crore (up 49%). source
18 Sep 2026Grasim's Canadian JV AVNB to temporarily idle Nackawic pulp mill — Grasim's Canadian joint venture AVNB said it will temporarily halt the roughly 190K TPA Nackawic pulp mill from around late October 2026, citing challenging market conditions; Grasim holds 45% of the JV. source
28 Sep 2026Birla group raises Grasim stake to 45.07% via open-market purchases — Promoter group entities disclosed open-market purchases that raised their combined holding in Grasim by 2.01% to 45.07% of diluted voting capital. source
Educational summary. On 02 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture was mixed. Over the next three months the stock moved -6.5% against -7.3% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Grasim Industries today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 05 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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