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Aluminium (PSU) Historical case study · data as of 17 Jul 2026 · published 20 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

National Aluminium Co. — 100-point case study

How National Aluminium Co. looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 17 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: NATIONALUM · BSE: 532234
Close on 17 Jul 2026	₹339.90
Market cap then	₹62,283 crore
Valuation	P/E 10.7× · P/B 2.88×
Momentum	RSI (14) 40 · 1-year return +79.7%
Next 3 months	-4.6% vs Nifty 50 -4.9% (to 16 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

5 bullish · 24 neutral · 1 caution · 19 bearish — the picture leaned negative.

Fundamental — 50 points

20 bullish · 26 neutral · 0 caution · 3 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 17 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope -0.06%/day	Neutral	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.06% a day — a flat, sideways phase. Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return -21.4%	Neutral	The 100-session trend line was down (-0.05%/day) and the stock was -21.4% over three months, so the medium-term picture was neutral. Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return +79.7%	Bullish	Compared with a year earlier the price was +79.7%. A strong positive year. Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 376.03 / 30W 376.06	Bearish	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close below the 10-week average, which sat below the 30-week. Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 420.70→444.50; lows 391.45→331.40	Neutral	The two most recent swing points showed a higher high but a lower low — mixed structure. Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	22.0	Bearish	ADX at 22.0 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction. Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 21.1 / –DI 30.6	Bearish	–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement. Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	350.76 (-3.1%)	Bearish	Close of 339.90 was 3.1% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	380.36 (-10.6%)	Bearish	Close of 339.90 was 10.6% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	336.49 (+1.0%)	Bullish	Close of 339.90 was 1.0% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 351.87 / 21E 356.85	Bearish	The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 08 Jun 2026. Bullish 9-day above 21-day · Bearish 9-day below 21-day · No neutral zone.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bullish	The 50-day average was 13.0% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window. Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13	50-day SMA slope	-7.1% in 20 sessions	Bearish	The 50-day average fell 7.1% over the past month — declining. Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14	MA ribbon alignment	351 / 380 / 387 / 336	Neutral	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range. Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	349.94 (-2.9%)	Bearish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 349.94; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water. Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	39.6	Bearish	RSI at 39.6 reflected soft, below-average momentum. Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price. Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD -7.61 / signal -9.99	Bullish	MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive. Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	2.80 → 2.37	Bearish	The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening. Bullish histogram rising (momentum improving) · Bearish histogram falling (momentum weakening) · No neutral zone.
20	MACD vs zero line	-7.61	Bearish	MACD below zero means the 12-day EMA was below the 26-day EMA — a negative momentum regime. Bullish MACD above zero · Bearish MACD below zero · No neutral zone.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 55.3 / %D 70.8	Bearish	Slow stochastic at 55.3 was mid-range with %K below %D. Bullish between 20 and 80 with %K above %D · Bearish between 20 and 80 with %K below %D · Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
22	Williams %R (14)	-77.3	Neutral	%R of -77.3 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range. How to read: Caution above –20 (near the top) or below –80 (near the bottom). Neutral in the middle. This point is never tagged Bullish or Bearish.
23	CCI (20)	-51	Neutral	CCI at -51 was within the normal ±100 band. Bullish above +100 (unusually strong upward move) · Bearish below –100 (unusually strong downward move) · Neutral within ±100.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	-2.2%	Bearish	Price changed -2.2% over ten sessions. Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.29 (bands 325.42–376.10)	Neutral	%B of 0.29 — inside the bands, lower half. How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 14.4% (14th pct of 6M)	Caution	Band width was at the 14th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown). How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27	ATR (14)	₹12.73 (3.7% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹12.73, or 3.7% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect. How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	43.9% vs 1Y 40.1%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 43.9%, close to the one-year level of 40.1%. How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	331.57–380.90	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout. Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	0.64	Neutral	A beta of 0.64 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day. How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.95× / 5-day 0.70×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.95× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.70× — lighter than usual participation. How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 1.06	Neutral	Average volume on up days was 1.06× that on down days — balanced. Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV falling	Bearish	OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move. Bullish OBV rising · Bearish OBV falling · No neutral zone.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume. Bullish A/D line rising · Bearish A/D line falling · No neutral zone.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.08	Bearish	CMF at -0.08 indicated net outflows. Bullish above +0.05 (net inflows) · Bearish below –0.05 (net outflows) · Neutral between –0.05 and +0.05.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	49.1	Neutral	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 49.1. Bullish MFI 55–80 · Bearish MFI 20–45 · Neutral 45–55. Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹413 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹413 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid. How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	332.26 / 259.30 / 249.40	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 332.26, 2.3% below the close, then 259.30, 249.40. How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	351.45 / 357.60 / 376.15	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 351.45, 3.4% above the close, then 357.60, 376.15. How to read: Information only.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 346.63 \| R1 361.77 \| S1 324.77	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 346.63; the close was below it. How to read: Information only.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 418 \| 38.2% 401 \| 50.0% 387 \| 61.8% 373	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month rise from 328.85 to 445.15, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 373.28. How to read: Information only.
42	52-week high / low	H 445.15 / L 179.93	Neutral	The close was 23.6% below the 52-week high and 88.9% above the 52-week low. Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	3 open; latest gap-down 23 Jun at 374.05	Neutral	There were 3 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-down on 23 Jun 2026, left an open level at 374.05 that price had not revisited. How to read: Information only.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	broad sideways range	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: broad sideways range. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.) Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 331.40–379.70	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 331.40–379.70. Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46	Latest candlestick	Bearish marubozu-type candle	Bearish	On 17 Jul the candle opened 353.00, ranged 338.05–353.75 and closed 339.90: Bearish marubozu-type candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own. Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 396.07–407.35; Tenkan 353.27 / Kijun 359.50	Bearish	Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup. Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M -9.2% / 3M -22.0%	Bearish	The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 22.0 points over three months and underperformed by 9.2 points over one month. Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M +7.9%	Bullish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 7.9 points ahead of the Nifty 50. Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50	Technical summary	5 bullish · 19 bearish · 24 neutral · 1 caution	Bearish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 332.26, resistance 351.45. This is a description of the chart on 17 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 17 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 17 Jul 2026 close.

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	10.7×	Neutral	At ₹339.90 the market valued the company at about ₹62,283 crore, or 10.7× the ₹5,796 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms. How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2	Price / Book	2.88×	Neutral	Market cap was 2.88× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹21,603 crore. How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3	Price / Sales	3.49×	Neutral	The company was valued at 3.49× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹17,843 crore. How to read: Information only.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	7.9×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹60 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 7.9× trailing operating profit of ₹7,923 crore. How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5	Earnings yield	9.3%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹9.3 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds. How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	0.18	Bullish	P/E of 10.7 divided by 3-year profit growth of 59.3% a year gives a PEG of 0.18. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	3.82%	Bullish	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹13 a share, a 3.82% yield on the ₹339.90 price. Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8	Market capitalisation	₹62,283 cr	Neutral	At about ₹0.62 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap. How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9	Graham number vs price	₹289.66 vs ₹339.90	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹289.66; the price was 17% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number. Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+6.3%	Neutral	Revenue for FY26 was ₹17,843 crore, +6.3% versus FY25. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% (revenue fell) · Neutral 0–10%.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	-4.8%	Bearish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹5,013 crore of revenue, -4.8% on the same quarter a year earlier. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+10.0%	Bullish	FY26 net profit was ₹5,797 crore, +10.0% on FY25's ₹5,268 crore. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	-16.7%	Bearish	Quarterly profit was ₹1,722 crore versus ₹2,067 crore a year earlier (-16.7%). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	7.8%	Neutral	Revenue compounded at 7.8% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	59.3%	Bullish	Net profit compounded at 59.3% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	14.8%	Bullish	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 14.8% a year. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+10.0%	Bullish	Reported EPS went from ₹28.68 to ₹31.56 (+10.0%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	44%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 44% of sales in FY26 versus 45% in FY25. How to read: Information only — normal margins differ a lot by industry.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	39% → 45% → 46% → 47%	Bullish	Quarterly margins moved from 39% to 47% over the last four quarters — expanding. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral when broadly stable.
20	Net profit margin FY26	32.5%	Neutral	₹32.5 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26. How to read: Information only.
21	Return on equity FY26	29.4%	Bullish	FY26 profit was 29.4% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak. Bullish above 18% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–18%. Around 15% or more is generally considered good.
22	ROCE FY26	40%	Bullish	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 40% in FY26. Bullish above 20% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–20%.
23	Return on assets FY26	21.84%	Neutral	Net profit was 21.84% of total assets. Bullish banks only: 1.5% or more · Bearish banks only: below 1% · Information only for non-banks.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	25%	Neutral	The company paid about 25% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%. How to read: Information only. India’s base corporate rate is about 25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	9%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹666 crore made up 9% of pre-tax profit. How to read: Caution above 25% (headline profit leans on non-core income). Neutral otherwise.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.00	Bullish	Borrowings of ₹60 crore were 0.00× equity — very low leverage. Bullish below 0.3 (very low leverage) · Bearish above 1 (high leverage) · Neutral 0.3–1.
27	Debt / EBITDA	0.01×	Bullish	Debt equalled 0.01 years of FY26 operating profit. Bullish below 1× · Bearish above 3× · Neutral 1–3×.
28	Interest coverage	78.5×	Bullish	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 78.5 times. Bullish above 8× · Bearish below 3× · Neutral 3–8×, or not meaningful when interest is negligible.
29	Book value growth	+21.3%	Bullish	Shareholders' equity grew +21.3% from ₹17,805 crore to ₹21,603 crore in FY26. Bullish above 10% (banks: above 12%) · Bearish below 0% (non-banks only) · Neutral otherwise.
30	Capital work in progress	₹6,395 cr (85% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 85% of fixed assets — a big expansion pipeline not yet earning. How to read: Information only. Above 20% means a big expansion pipeline that is not yet earning.
31	Working capital days	-6 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled -6 days of sales (FY25: -7). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations. How to read: Information only. Lower is generally more efficient; negative means suppliers or customers fund the business.
32	Cash conversion cycle	152 days	Neutral	It took 152 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit. How to read: Information only. Shorter is generally better.
33	Debtor days	4 (FY25 4)	Neutral	Customers took 4 days on average to pay, versus 4 a year earlier. How to read: Caution when debtor days rose more than 20% in a year (collections stretching). Neutral otherwise.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹6,438 cr	Bullish	The business generated ₹6,438 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹5,806 crore in FY25. Bullish positive and higher than the year before · Bearish negative · Neutral when positive but lower. Information only for banks.
35	Free cash flow FY26	₹4,413 cr	Bullish	After capital spending, free cash flow was ₹4,413 crore. Bullish positive · Bearish negative · Neutral when not available.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	1.11×	Bullish	Operating cash flow was 1.11× reported profit — profits were well backed by cash. Bullish above 1× (profits well backed by cash) · Caution below 0.7×. Neutral 0.7–1×.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	7.1%	Bullish	FY26 free cash flow was 7.1% of the snapshot market cap. Bullish above 4% · Neutral at 4% or less.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	₹10,129 cr	Bullish	Free cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹10,129 crore. Bullish positive total · Bearish negative total · Neutral when not available.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	₹2,025 cr	Neutral	Implied capital expenditure was about ₹2,025 crore, 11.3% of sales. How to read: Information only.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	36%	Neutral	The company paid out about 36% of FY26 profit as dividends. How to read: Information only. High payout suits mature businesses; growing firms often keep more.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	46% / 37% / 36%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year. Bullish paid every year · Neutral when irregular. Never tagged Bearish.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.0%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹918 cr → ₹918 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution. Bullish fell 1% or more (a buyback) · Caution when it rose 1% or more (new shares issued). Neutral when unchanged, or for a bonus/split.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	51.28% (+0.00 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 51.28% at Mar 2026 versus 51.28% a year earlier. Bearish fell more than 1 percentage point in a year · Neutral otherwise. Never tagged Bullish.
44	Foreign institutional holding	22.27% (+6.46 pts YoY)	Bullish	FIIs held 22.27% at Mar 2026, up from 15.81% a year before. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
45	Domestic institutional holding	10.75% (-4.95 pts YoY)	Bearish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 10.75%, down from 15.70%. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
46	Number of shareholders	9.7 lakh (+4.5% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 9.3 lakh to 9.7 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest. How to read: Information only — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares. How to read: Information only. Any sizeable pledge is a risk to note.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	5/8	Neutral	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, CFO > net profit, leverage fell, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: operating margin improved, ROA improved, asset turnover improved. Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49	Automated screen flags	6 strength(s) · 0 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company has reduced debt; Company is almost debt free; Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 3.62%; Company has delivered good profit growth of 34.9% CAGR over last 5 years; Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 25.7%; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 39.7%. No weaknesses flagged. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.) How to read: Information only.
50	Fundamental summary	20 bullish · 3 bearish · 26 neutral · 0 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 17 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 10.7×, P/B 2.88×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 17 Apr 2026 – 17 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

30 Apr 2026 Nalco Q4 FY26 results: Net profit falls 16.6% to Rs 1,722 cr, revenue dips — Consolidated net profit for the March 2026 quarter was Rs 1,722.44 crore vs Rs 2,067.23 crore a year earlier; revenue was Rs 5,012.82 crore vs Rs 5,267.83 crore. Board approved a third interim dividend of Rs 2 per share for FY26. source
30 Apr 2026 Nalco posts record net profit of Rs 5,816 crore in FY26 on strong operations — Company reported record FY26 (standalone) net profit of Rs 5,816 crore on revenue from operations of Rs 17,843 crore. source
04 May 2026 NALCO sets record date for Rs 2 interim dividend — Third interim dividend for FY2025-26 of Rs 2 per share with record date May 8, 2026; filing also cited FY27 targets of 25 lakh tonnes alumina and 4.73 lakh tonnes metal. source
23 Jun 2026 Vedanta, Nalco, Hindalco, Hind Zinc, Tata Steel, Hind Copper shares extend losses — Nalco fell 4.4% to Rs 361.50 intraday as metal stocks sold off on lower metal prices and profit booking; weaker aluminium prices were attributed to rising Chinese exports and near-record output. source
09 Jul 2026 Nalco, NLC India to build 1,080 MW power plant with Rs 12,000 cr investment — Nalco and NLC India agreed a 50:50 JV to build a 1,080 MW thermal plant in Odisha (~Rs 12,000 crore) to power Nalco's 0.5 mtpa smelter expansion (~Rs 30,000 crore, due 2030-31) under a 25-year PPA. source
10 Jul 2026 NALCO, Hindalco rally up to 4% as aluminium prices rebound — NALCO gained about 4% to Rs 363 intraday as aluminium prices rose over 5% from early-July lows and LME warehouse stocks fell more than 40% since January. source

What happened next (17 Jul 2026 → 16 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹339.90 to ₹324.25 by 16 Oct 2026 (-4.6%) while the Nifty 50 moved -4.9% — outperforming by 0.3 points.
Highest ₹422.20 on 12 Aug 2026; lowest ₹309.90 on 09 Oct 2026.
S1 332.26: broken on a closing basis on 07 Oct 2026.
S2 259.30: held on a closing basis.
R1 351.45: cleared on a closing basis on 03 Aug 2026.
R2 357.60: cleared on a closing basis on 03 Aug 2026.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 27 Jul 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 31 Jul 2026): revenue ₹5,302 crore (+39.3% YoY), net profit ₹2,003 crore (+90.9% YoY), operating margin 51% vs 39% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).

Later news

01 Aug 2026 Nalco Q1 profit jumps 88% on higher aluminium prices, record output — Board approved Q1 FY27 results on July 31; standalone net profit rose 88% YoY to Rs 2,002.38 crore and revenue from operations rose 39.3% to Rs 5,302.38 crore. Board recommended a final FY26 dividend of Re 1 per share (record date Aug 24). source
03 Aug 2026 Nalco fined by BSE, NSE over shortfall in independent directors on Board — BSE and NSE each fined Nalco Rs 5.31 lakh (incl. GST) for insufficient independent directors in the March 2026 quarter; Nalco said appointments rest with the government and sought a waiver. source
07 Sep 2026 Nalco ties up with UAE's EGA for aluminium smelter expansion in Odisha — Nalco signed a technology licence deal with Emirates Global Aluminium to use its DX+ Ultra smelting technology for a 0.5 mtpa expansion at Anugul, taking capacity to about 1 mtpa. source
28 Sep 2026 Nalco to supply 50,000 tonnes of molten aluminium a year to Angul park — Nalco plans to supply about 50,000 tonnes a year of molten aluminium to units in the Angul Aluminium Park in Odisha; the state plans to acquire 300 more acres for the park. source

Educational summary. On 17 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -4.6% against -4.9% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold National Aluminium Co. today.

Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 20 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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