Iron ore mining (PSU) Historical case study · data as of 17 Jul 2026 · published 20 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

NMDC — 100-point case study

How NMDC looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 17 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: NMDC · BSE: 526371
Close on 17 Jul 2026	₹83.22
Market cap then	₹73,156 crore
Valuation	P/E 9.8× · P/B 2.15×
Momentum	RSI (14) 38 · 1-year return +19.6%
Next 3 months	-15.3% vs Nifty 50 -5.9% (to 19 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

7 bullish · 20 neutral · 2 caution · 20 bearish — the picture leaned negative.

Fundamental — 50 points

21 bullish · 24 neutral · 1 caution · 3 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 17 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope -0.18%/day	Bearish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.18% a day — a short-term downtrend. Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return -4.5%	Bullish	The 100-session trend line was up (+0.11%/day) and the stock was -4.5% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish. Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return +19.6%	Bullish	Compared with a year earlier the price was +19.6%. A strong positive year. Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 87.80 / 30W 84.27	Neutral	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages. Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 97.49→86.93; lows 86.38→83.00	Bearish	The two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure. Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	22.8	Bearish	ADX at 22.8 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction. Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 17.0 / –DI 28.7	Bearish	–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement. Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	85.11 (-2.2%)	Bearish	Close of 83.22 was 2.2% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	88.14 (-5.6%)	Bearish	Close of 83.22 was 5.6% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	81.80 (+1.7%)	Bullish	Close of 83.22 was 1.7% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive. Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 84.39 / 21E 85.44	Bearish	The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 15 Jun 2026. Bullish 9-day above 21-day · Bearish 9-day below 21-day · No neutral zone.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bullish	The 50-day average was 7.8% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window. Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13	50-day SMA slope	-1.2% in 20 sessions	Bearish	The 50-day average fell 1.2% over the past month — declining. Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14	MA ribbon alignment	85 / 88 / 85 / 82	Neutral	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range. Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	84.59 (-1.6%)	Bearish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 84.59; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water. Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	37.9	Bearish	RSI at 37.9 reflected soft, below-average momentum. Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price. Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD -1.17 / signal -1.18	Bullish	MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive. Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	-0.07 → 0.01	Bullish	The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving. Bullish histogram rising (momentum improving) · Bearish histogram falling (momentum weakening) · No neutral zone.
20	MACD vs zero line	-1.17	Bearish	MACD below zero means the 12-day EMA was below the 26-day EMA — a negative momentum regime. Bullish MACD above zero · Bearish MACD below zero · No neutral zone.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 29.2 / %D 37.2	Bearish	Slow stochastic at 29.2 was mid-range with %K below %D. Bullish between 20 and 80 with %K above %D · Bearish between 20 and 80 with %K below %D · Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
22	Williams %R (14)	-87.9	Caution	%R of -87.9 put the close near the bottom of its 14-day range. How to read: Caution above –20 (near the top) or below –80 (near the bottom). Neutral in the middle. This point is never tagged Bullish or Bearish.
23	CCI (20)	-134	Bearish	CCI at -134 signalled an unusually strong downward deviation (<–100). Bullish above +100 (unusually strong upward move) · Bearish below –100 (unusually strong downward move) · Neutral within ±100.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	-2.6%	Bearish	Price changed -2.6% over ten sessions. Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.13 (bands 82.57–87.65)	Neutral	%B of 0.13 — inside the bands, lower half. How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 6.0% (0th pct of 6M)	Caution	Band width was at the 0th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown). How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27	ATR (14)	₹1.93 (2.3% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹1.93, or 2.3% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect. How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	21.4% vs 1Y 28.4%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 21.4%, below the one-year level of 28.4%. How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	81.75–88.96	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout. Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	0.94	Neutral	A beta of 0.94 means the stock tended to move roughly in line with the Nifty 50 day to day. How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 1.00× / 5-day 0.86×	Neutral	The final session traded 1.00× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.86× — normal participation. How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 1.08	Neutral	Average volume on up days was 1.08× that on down days — balanced. Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV falling	Bearish	OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move. Bullish OBV rising · Bearish OBV falling · No neutral zone.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume. Bullish A/D line rising · Bearish A/D line falling · No neutral zone.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.09	Bearish	CMF at -0.09 indicated net outflows. Bullish above +0.05 (net inflows) · Bearish below –0.05 (net outflows) · Neutral between –0.05 and +0.05.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	34.4	Bearish	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 34.4. Bullish MFI 55–80 · Bearish MFI 20–45 · Neutral 45–55. Caution above 80 (overbought) or below 20 (oversold).
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹193 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹193 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid. How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	78.43 / 75.58 / 72.69	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 78.43, 6.1% below the close, then 75.58, 72.69. How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	85.61 / 89.71 / 92.37	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 85.61, 2.9% above the close, then 89.71, 92.37. How to read: Information only.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 84.29 \| R1 85.86 \| S1 81.64	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 84.29; the close was below it. How to read: Information only.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 92 \| 38.2% 89 \| 50.0% 86 \| 61.8% 83	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month rise from 74.55 to 97.49, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 83.31. How to read: Information only.
42	52-week high / low	H 97.49 / L 67.75	Neutral	The close was 14.6% below the 52-week high and 22.8% above the 52-week low. Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	1 open; latest gap-up 08 Apr at 81.91	Neutral	There was 1 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 08 Apr 2026, left an open level at 81.91 that price had not revisited. How to read: Information only.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	pullback inside a larger uptrend	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: pullback inside a larger uptrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.) Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 83.00–89.25	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 83.00–89.25. Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary red candle	Neutral	On 17 Jul the candle opened 84.15, ranged 82.71–84.49 and closed 83.22: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own. Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 86.02–92.19; Tenkan 84.38 / Kijun 87.34	Bearish	Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup. Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M -6.5% / 3M -5.1%	Bearish	The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 5.1 points over three months and underperformed by 6.5 points over one month. Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M +8.0%	Bullish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 8.0 points ahead of the Nifty 50. Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50	Technical summary	7 bullish · 20 bearish · 20 neutral · 2 caution	Bearish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 78.43, resistance 85.61. This is a description of the chart on 17 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 17 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 17 Jul 2026 close.

How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	9.8×	Neutral	At ₹83.22 the market valued the company at about ₹73,156 crore, or 9.8× the ₹7,450 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms. How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2	Price / Book	2.15×	Neutral	Market cap was 2.15× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹34,062 crore. How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3	Price / Sales	2.28×	Neutral	The company was valued at 2.28× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹32,071 crore. How to read: Information only.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	8.6×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹6,407 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 8.6× trailing operating profit of ₹9,259 crore. How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5	Earnings yield	10.2%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹10.2 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds. How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	0.98	Bullish	P/E of 9.8 divided by 3-year profit growth of 10.0% a year gives a PEG of 0.98. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	4.21%	Bullish	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹3.5 a share, a 4.21% yield on the ₹83.22 price. Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8	Market capitalisation	₹73,156 cr	Neutral	At about ₹0.73 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap. How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9	Graham number vs price	₹85.96 vs ₹83.22	Bullish	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹85.96; the price was 3% below it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number. Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+34.2%	Bullish	Revenue for FY26 was ₹32,071 crore, +34.2% versus FY25. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% (revenue fell) · Neutral 0–10%.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+61.9%	Bullish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹11,343 crore of revenue, +61.9% on the same quarter a year earlier. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+14.3%	Bullish	FY26 net profit was ₹7,450 crore, +14.3% on FY25's ₹6,520 crore. Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	+37.2%	Bullish	Quarterly profit was ₹2,027 crore versus ₹1,477 crore a year earlier (+37.2%). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	22.0%	Bullish	Revenue compounded at 22.0% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	10.0%	Neutral	Net profit compounded at 10.0% a year from FY23 to FY26. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	15.8%	Bullish	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 15.8% a year. Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+14.0%	Bullish	Reported EPS went from ₹7.43 to ₹8.47 (+14.0%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%.

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	29%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 29% of sales in FY26 versus 34% in FY25. How to read: Information only — normal margins differ a lot by industry.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	37% → 31% → 28% → 23%	Bearish	Quarterly margins moved from 37% to 23% over the last four quarters — contracting. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral when broadly stable.
20	Net profit margin FY26	23.2%	Neutral	₹23.2 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26. How to read: Information only.
21	Return on equity FY26	23.4%	Bullish	FY26 profit was 23.4% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak. Bullish above 18% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–18%. Around 15% or more is generally considered good.
22	ROCE FY26	28%	Bullish	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 28% in FY26. Bullish above 20% · Bearish below 10% · Neutral 10–20%.
23	Return on assets FY26	15.42%	Neutral	Net profit was 15.42% of total assets. Bullish banks only: 1.5% or more · Bearish banks only: below 1% · Information only for non-banks.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	27%	Neutral	The company paid about 27% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%. How to read: Information only. India’s base corporate rate is about 25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	15%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹1,488 crore made up 15% of pre-tax profit. How to read: Caution above 25% (headline profit leans on non-core income). Neutral otherwise.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.19	Bullish	Borrowings of ₹6,407 crore were 0.19× equity — very low leverage. Bullish below 0.3 (very low leverage) · Bearish above 1 (high leverage) · Neutral 0.3–1.
27	Debt / EBITDA	0.69×	Bullish	Debt equalled 0.69 years of FY26 operating profit. Bullish below 1× · Bearish above 3× · Neutral 1–3×.
28	Interest coverage	84.9×	Bullish	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 84.9 times. Bullish above 8× · Bearish below 3× · Neutral 3–8×, or not meaningful when interest is negligible.
29	Book value growth	+14.7%	Bullish	Shareholders' equity grew +14.7% from ₹29,696 crore to ₹34,062 crore in FY26. Bullish above 10% (banks: above 12%) · Bearish below 0% (non-banks only) · Neutral otherwise.
30	Capital work in progress	₹6,749 cr (115% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 115% of fixed assets — a big expansion pipeline not yet earning. How to read: Information only. Above 20% means a big expansion pipeline that is not yet earning.
31	Working capital days	67 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled 67 days of sales (FY25: 55). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations. How to read: Information only. Lower is generally more efficient; negative means suppliers or customers fund the business.
32	Cash conversion cycle	247 days	Neutral	It took 247 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit. How to read: Information only. Shorter is generally better.
33	Debtor days	105 (FY25 118)	Neutral	Customers took 105 days on average to pay, versus 118 a year earlier. How to read: Caution when debtor days rose more than 20% in a year (collections stretching). Neutral otherwise.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹4,996 cr	Bullish	The business generated ₹4,996 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹1,894 crore in FY25. Bullish positive and higher than the year before · Bearish negative · Neutral when positive but lower. Information only for banks.
35	Free cash flow FY26	₹1,826 cr	Bullish	After capital spending, free cash flow was ₹1,826 crore. Bullish positive · Bearish negative · Neutral when not available.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	0.67×	Caution	Operating cash flow was 0.67× reported profit — cash lagged profits; worth watching. Bullish above 1× (profits well backed by cash) · Caution below 0.7×. Neutral 0.7–1×.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	2.5%	Neutral	FY26 free cash flow was 2.5% of the snapshot market cap. Bullish above 4% · Neutral at 4% or less.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	₹6,037 cr	Bullish	Free cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹6,037 crore. Bullish positive total · Bearish negative total · Neutral when not available.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	₹3,170 cr	Neutral	Implied capital expenditure was about ₹3,170 crore, 9.9% of sales. How to read: Information only.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	41%	Neutral	The company paid out about 41% of FY26 profit as dividends. How to read: Information only. High payout suits mature businesses; growing firms often keep more.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	38% / 44% / 41%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year. Bullish paid every year · Neutral when irregular. Never tagged Bearish.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.0%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹879 cr → ₹879 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution. Bullish fell 1% or more (a buyback) · Caution when it rose 1% or more (new shares issued). Neutral when unchanged, or for a bonus/split.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	60.79% (+0.00 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 60.79% at Mar 2026 versus 60.79% a year earlier. Bearish fell more than 1 percentage point in a year · Neutral otherwise. Never tagged Bullish.
44	Foreign institutional holding	13.60% (+1.88 pts YoY)	Bullish	FIIs held 13.60% at Mar 2026, up from 11.72% a year before. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
45	Domestic institutional holding	13.76% (-1.36 pts YoY)	Bearish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 13.76%, down from 15.12%. Bullish up more than 1 percentage point · Bearish down more than 1 percentage point · Neutral within ±1 point.
46	Number of shareholders	11.3 lakh (+0.9% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 11.2 lakh to 11.3 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest. How to read: Information only — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares. How to read: Information only. Any sizeable pledge is a risk to note.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	4/8	Bearish	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, asset turnover improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: CFO > net profit, leverage fell, operating margin improved, ROA improved. Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49	Automated screen flags	4 strength(s) · 2 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 4.96%; Company is expected to give good quarter; Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 23.6%; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 41.3%. Weaknesses: Contingent liabilities of Rs.24,037 Cr; Working capital days have increased from 43.7 days to 67.3 days. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.) How to read: Information only.
50	Fundamental summary	21 bullish · 3 bearish · 24 neutral · 1 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 17 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 9.8×, P/B 2.15×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell. Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 17 Apr 2026 – 17 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

05 May 2026 NMDC's iron ore production rises 16% YoY to 4.64 MT in April 2026 — April 2026 production 4.64 MT vs 4.00 MT a year earlier; sales up 1.38% to 3.68 MT from 3.63 MT. source
29 May 2026 NMDC Q4 FY26 net profit up 35% to Rs 2,020 crore; final dividend of Rs 1 recommended — Q4 FY26 revenue from operations Rs 11,173 crore (+61% YoY), net profit Rs 2,020 crore (+35%). FY26 net profit Rs 7,421 crore (+11%), EPS Rs 8.44. Board recommended final dividend of Rs 1/share in addition to Rs 2.50 interim (total Rs 3.50 for FY26). source
03 Jun 2026 NMDC raises iron ore prices: lump up Rs 200/tonne, fines up Rs 150/tonne — Baila lump ore raised to Rs 5,700/tonne and fines to Rs 4,850/tonne. source
01 Jul 2026 NMDC reports highest-ever Q1 production and sales — Q1 FY27 production 15.10 MT (+26% YoY) and sales 11.75 MT (+2%). June 2026 production 5.15 MT (+44%), sales 3.98 MT (+11%). source
10 Jul 2026 NMDC revises iron ore prices effective July 10, 2026 — Baila lump set at Rs 5,450/tonne (from Rs 5,700) and Baila fines at Rs 4,700/tonne (from Rs 4,850), effective July 10, 2026, per exchange filing. source

What happened next (17 Jul 2026 → 19 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹83.22 to ₹70.50 by 19 Oct 2026 (-15.3%) while the Nifty 50 moved -5.9% — underperforming by 9.3 points.
Highest ₹89.10 on 27 Aug 2026; lowest ₹70.10 on 08 Oct 2026.
S1 78.43: broken on a closing basis on 28 Sep 2026.
S2 75.58: broken on a closing basis on 01 Oct 2026.
R1 85.61: cleared on a closing basis on 29 Jul 2026.
R2 89.71: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 11 Sep 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 14 Aug 2026): revenue ₹6,795 crore (+0.8% YoY), net profit ₹1,976 crore (+0.4% YoY), operating margin 36% vs 37% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).

Later news

01 Aug 2026 NMDC iron ore production rises 31% in July 2026 — July 2026 production 4.06 MT vs 3.09 MT a year earlier; sales roughly flat at 3.40 MT vs 3.46 MT. April-July production 19.16 MT, sales 15.15 MT. source
08 Aug 2026 NMDC cuts iron ore prices: lump to Rs 5,250/ton, fines to Rs 4,500/ton — Price revision effective August 8, 2026; lump and fines each reduced by Rs 200 per ton (FOR, excluding levies and taxes). source
14 Aug 2026 NMDC Q1 FY27 results: profit up 2% YoY — Board approved Q1 FY27 results on Aug 14, 2026. Revenue from operations Rs 6,795.25 crore (+2.4%); standalone PAT Rs 2,007.27 crore (+2%); consolidated PAT Rs 2,005.71 crore. Royalty and other levies rose 30% to Rs 3,495.03 crore. Auditors noted contingent liabilities of Rs 30,829.69 crore. source
24 Aug 2026 NMDC to hold 68th AGM on Sept 28, 2026; record date for final dividend Oct 5 — AGM via video conference on 28 Sept 2026; record date 5 Oct 2026 for proposed final dividend of Rs 1 per share for FY2025-26. source
01 Oct 2026 NMDC iron ore production rises 7.7% in September 2026; sales down 9.5% — September 2026 production 4.04 MT vs 3.75 MT; sales 3.51 MT vs 3.88 MT. April-September production 27.27 MT (+22.8%), sales flat at 22.23 MT. source

Educational summary. On 17 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -15.3% against -5.9% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold NMDC today.

Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 20 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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