Renewable power (PSU)Historical case study · data as of 17 Jul 2026 · published 20 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
NTPC Green Energy — 100-point case study
How NTPC Green Energy looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 17 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: NTPC Green Energy listed in November 2024, so long-term history is short. Daily prices from 15 September 2026 onward come from EquityPandit (Yahoo Finance was rate-limited); overlapping days matched Yahoo exactly.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 17 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -0.20%/day
Bearish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.20% a day — a short-term downtrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -15.5%
Neutral
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.04%/day) and the stock was -15.5% over three months, so the medium-term picture was neutral.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -17.9%
Bearish
Compared with a year earlier the price was -17.9%. A weak year for the stock.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 98.84 / 30W 97.03
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 112.70→96.98; lows 94.17→92.10
Bearish
The two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
30.7
Bearish
ADX at 30.7 shows a strong trend in force. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 17.2 / –DI 22.5
Bearish
–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
94.52 (-2.7%)
Bearish
Close of 91.97 was 2.7% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
99.63 (-7.7%)
Bearish
Close of 91.97 was 7.7% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
97.08 (-5.3%)
Bearish
Close of 91.97 was 5.3% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 93.45 / 21E 94.93
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 21 May 2026.
The 50-day average was 2.6% above the 200-day. The most recent signal was a golden cross on 05 May 2026.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-5.2% in 20 sessions
Bearish
The 50-day average fell 5.2% over the past month — declining.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
95 / 100 / 99 / 97
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
93.96 (-2.1%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 93.96; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
34.4
Bearish
RSI at 34.4 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -1.78 / signal -1.88
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
0.17 → 0.10
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.05 (bands 91.66–97.39)
Neutral
%B of 0.05 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 6.1% (3rd pct of 6M)
Caution
Band width was at the 3rd percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown).
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹2.09 (2.3% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹2.09, or 2.3% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
17.1% vs 1Y 27.8%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 17.1%, below the one-year level of 27.8%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
90.78–98.81
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
0.45
Neutral
A beta of 0.45 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 2.10× / 5-day 1.04×
Neutral
The final session traded 2.10× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.04× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 0.89
Neutral
Average volume on up days was 0.89× that on down days — balanced.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV falling
Bearish
OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹29 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — moderately liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
88.56 / 84.56
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 88.56, 3.9% below the close, then 84.56.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
96.81 / 101.48 / 106.04
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 96.81, 5.3% above the close, then 101.48, 106.04.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 93.55 | R1 95.40 | S1 90.13
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 93.55; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 111 | 38.2% 106 | 50.0% 102 | 61.8% 98
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 84.00 to 119.95, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 97.73.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 119.95 / L 84.00
Neutral
The close was 23.3% below the 52-week high and 9.5% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
none
Neutral
No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
broad sideways range
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: broad sideways range. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 92.10–97.71
Bearish
The close was breakdown below the prior 20-day range of 92.10–97.71 — a range break.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 17 Jul the candle opened 93.03, ranged 91.71–94.50 and closed 91.97: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 103.90–105.38; Tenkan 93.98 / Kijun 96.18
Bearish
Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -6.2% / 3M -16.0%
Bearish
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 16.0 points over three months and underperformed by 6.2 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +5.4%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 5.4 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
3 bullish · 23 bearish · 20 neutral · 3 caution
Bearish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 88.56, resistance 96.81. This is a description of the chart on 17 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 17 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 17 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
148.6×
Neutral
At ₹91.97 the market valued the company at about ₹77,247 crore, or 148.6× the ₹520 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
4.07×
Neutral
Market cap was 4.07× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹18,965 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
27.03×
Neutral
The company was valued at 27.03× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹2,858 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
44.6×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹31,716 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 44.6× trailing operating profit of ₹2,443 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
0.7%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹0.7 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
3.30
Bearish
P/E of 148.6 divided by 3-year profit growth of 45.0% a year gives a PEG of 3.30. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
n/a
Neutral
Dividend history in our data window was not available.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹77,247 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.77 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹17.74 vs ₹91.97
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹17.74; the price was 419% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+29.3%
Bullish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹2,858 crore, +29.3% versus FY25.
Revenue compounded at 156.2% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15
Profit CAGR (3 years)
45.0%
Caution
Net profit compounded at 45.0% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
n/a
Neutral
Not available. Note: revenue jumped more than 40% in Mar 2024, which usually signals a merger or acquisition — multi-year growth rates are inflated by it.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17
EPS growth FY26 (reported)
+10.7%
Bullish
Reported EPS went from ₹0.56 to ₹0.62 (+10.7%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
2 strength(s) · 5 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company is expected to give good quarter; Debtor days have improved from 98.3 to 78.5 days. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 3.90 times its book value; Though the company is reporting repeated profits, it is not paying out dividend; Company has low interest coverage ratio; Company has a low return on equity of 3.66% over last 3 years; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
5 bullish · 9 bearish · 32 neutral · 3 caution
Bearish
On the numbers published by 17 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned negative. Valuation: P/E 148.6×, P/B 4.07×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 17 Apr 2026 – 17 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
17 Apr 2026NTPC Green Energy declares commercial operation of 150 MW of 300 MW Rajasthan solar project — 150 MW of a 300 MW solar project of Sixteen Renewable Power (step-down subsidiary of JV ONGC NTPC Green) declared on commercial operation effective 18 April 2026; group commercial capacity to rise from 10,126.40 MW to 10,276.40 MW. source
25 May 2026NTPC Green Energy Q4 FY26: revenue up 46.7% YoY, PAT down 15.5%; board approves up to Rs 5,000 crore bond raising — Q4 FY26 revenue from operations Rs 912.63 crore vs Rs 622.27 crore; PAT Rs 197.17 crore vs Rs 233.21 crore. FY26 revenue Rs 2,858.42 crore, PAT Rs 521.35 crore (+9.96%). Board approved raising up to Rs 5,000 crore via bonds/NCDs in FY27 and a JV with CtrlS Datacenters for renewable projects. Shares fell in the morning session. source
12 Jun 2026NTPC Green Energy adds 50 MW solar in Rajasthan; commercial capacity reaches 10,671.40 MW — 50 MW solar PV by Project Sixteen Renewable Power (ONGC NTPC Green JV step-down subsidiary) declared commercial effective 14 June 2026, taking group commercial capacity from 10,621.40 MW to 10,671.40 MW. source
08 Jul 2026NTPC Green Energy to raise Rs 2,500 crore via 10-year NCDs at 7.27% — Unsecured NCDs of Rs 2,500 crore by private placement, coupon 7.27%, issue date 9 July 2026, maturing 9 July 2036; first issue under the board approval of 22 May 2026; listing proposed on NSE. source
What happened next (17 Jul 2026 → 19 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹91.97 to ₹87.68 by 19 Oct 2026 (-4.7%) while the Nifty 50 moved -5.9% — outperforming by 1.3 points.
Highest ₹99.60 on 23 Jul 2026; lowest ₹85.16 on 16 Sep 2026.
S1 88.56: broken on a closing basis on 02 Sep 2026.
S2 84.56: held on a closing basis.
R1 96.81: cleared on a closing basis on 23 Jul 2026.
R2 101.48: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and crossed above on 23 Jul 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 22 Jul 2026): revenue ₹1,107 crore (+62.8% YoY), net profit ₹305 crore (+38.6% YoY), operating margin 89% vs 89% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
22 Jul 2026NTPC Green Energy Q1 FY27 consolidated net profit Rs 305 crore vs Rs 221 crore YoY — Revenue from operations Rs 1,106.86 crore vs Rs 680.21 crore (+62.7%); EBITDA Rs 989 crore (+63.8%), margin 89.3%; net profit up about 38% YoY. source
23 Jul 2026NTPC Green Energy shares rise after Q1 FY27 results and approval of SPV subsidiary — Stock rose a day after results; board approved incorporating a wholly owned SPV for renewable projects to allow later equity dilution for captive/group-captive C&I consumers, subject to approvals. Volume on 23 Jul was ~107.6 million shares. source
05 Aug 2026NTPC Green Energy annual report FY26: operational capacity crosses 10 GW — Annual Report 2025-26: added 4,174 MW in FY26 to reach 10,076 MW operational at 31 Mar 2026 (from 5,902 MW); generation 14.60 BU; consolidated PAT Rs 521.35 crore; target 60 GW by 2032; Schedule 'A' CPSE status received. source
12 Sep 2026NTPC Green Energy adds 6.3 MW wind capacity in Gujarat — Second part of the Vanki wind project (Kutch) by NTPC Renewable Energy declared commercial from 13 Sep 2026; group commercial capacity rises from 10,836.56 MW to 10,842.86 MW. source
Educational summary. On 17 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned negative. Over the next three months the stock moved -4.7% against -5.9% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold NTPC Green Energy today.
Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 20 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction