Lignite mining & power (PSU)Historical case study · data as of 17 Jul 2026 · published 20 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
NLC India — 100-point case study
How NLC India looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 17 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: The government sold about 2.73% of NLC India through an offer for sale on 9–10 June 2026; promoter holding fell from 72.20% to 69.47%.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 17 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope -0.53%/day
Bearish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.53% a day — a short-term downtrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -0.7%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.27%/day) and the stock was -0.7% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +23.6%
Bullish
Compared with a year earlier the price was +23.6%. A strong positive year.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 326.37 / 30W 289.46
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 387.80→329.10; lows 305.10→292.70
Bearish
The two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
20.9
Bearish
ADX at 20.9 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 13.0 / –DI 24.6
Bearish
–DI was above +DI: sellers had the upper hand in directional movement.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
312.33 (-5.4%)
Bearish
Close of 295.60 was 5.4% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
326.04 (-9.3%)
Bearish
Close of 295.60 was 9.3% below the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
279.10 (+5.9%)
Bullish
Close of 295.60 was 5.9% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 303.54 / 21E 310.28
Bearish
The 9-day EMA was below the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 10 Jun 2026.
The 50-day average was 16.8% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+1.9% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 1.9% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
312 / 326 / 301 / 279
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
306.23 (-3.5%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 306.23; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
37.9
Bearish
RSI at 37.9 reflected soft, below-average momentum.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD -6.65 / signal -5.54
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
-1.17 → -1.10
Bullish
The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.12 (bands 290.24–334.42)
Neutral
%B of 0.12 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 14.1% (50th pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 50th percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹9.77 (3.3% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹9.77, or 3.3% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
33.0% vs 1Y 36.9%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 33.0%, close to the one-year level of 36.9%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
291.69–327.99
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
0.83
Neutral
A beta of 0.83 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.50× / 5-day 0.61×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.50× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.61× — lighter than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 2.04
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 2.04× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV falling
Bearish
OBV fell over the month while price fell — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹97 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
292.92 / 261.10 / 249.64
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 292.92, 0.9% below the close, then 261.10, 249.64.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
316.98 / 329.00 / 362.00
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 316.98, 7.2% above the close, then 329.00, 362.00.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 303.85 | R1 315.00 | S1 284.45
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 303.85; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 352 | 38.2% 330 | 50.0% 312 | 61.8% 294
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 236.00 to 387.80, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 293.99.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 387.80 / L 222.00
Neutral
The close was 23.8% below the 52-week high and 33.2% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
none
Neutral
No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
pullback inside a larger uptrend
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: pullback inside a larger uptrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 292.70–329.10
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 292.70–329.10.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary red candle
Neutral
On 17 Jul the candle opened 298.80, ranged 294.20–299.20 and closed 295.60: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 319.10–340.93; Tenkan 304.05 / Kijun 310.90
Bearish
Price was below the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bearish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M -6.0% / 3M -1.3%
Neutral
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 1.3 points over three months and underperformed by 6.0 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +20.2%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 20.2 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
9 bullish · 16 bearish · 22 neutral · 2 caution
Bearish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned negative. Levels that mattered: support 292.92, resistance 316.98. This is a description of the chart on 17 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 17 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 17 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
10.9×
Neutral
At ₹295.60 the market valued the company at about ₹40,989 crore, or 10.9× the ₹3,769 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a low multiple in absolute terms.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
1.90×
Neutral
Market cap was 1.90× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹21,525 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
2.34×
Neutral
The company was valued at 2.34× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹17,489 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
12.6×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹27,892 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 12.6× trailing operating profit of ₹5,453 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
9.2%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹9.2 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
0.28
Bullish
P/E of 10.9 divided by 3-year profit growth of 38.3% a year gives a PEG of 0.28. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
1.73%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹5.1 a share, a 1.73% yield on the ₹295.60 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹40,989 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.41 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹308.11 vs ₹295.60
Bullish
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹308.11; the price was 4% below it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+14.3%
Bullish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹17,519 crore, +14.3% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
2 strength(s) · 5 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Healthy dividend payout of 17.8%; Debtor days improved from 91.2 to 69.5. Weaknesses: Tax rate appears low; ROE of 11.1% over the last 3 years is low; Contingent liabilities of ₹13,000 Cr; May be capitalizing interest cost; Promoter holding fell by 9.73% over the last 3 years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
16 bullish · 5 bearish · 27 neutral · 1 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 17 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 10.9×, P/B 1.90×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 17 Apr 2026 – 17 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
14 May 2026NLC India reports Q4 FY26 results; shares hit record high — Consolidated Q4 FY26 revenue from operations was ₹5,042.46 crore (up ~31.5% YoY); PBT ₹1,517.59 crore (up ~66%). FY26 consolidated PAT ₹3,769.18 crore. Board recommended a final dividend of ₹0.25/share (interim ₹3.60 already paid). Stock rose ~14% intraday to a record ~₹371 on 14 May. source
08 Jun 2026Government announces OFS to sell up to 3% of NLC India at floor price ₹303 — Centre (holding 72.20%) offered a 2% base stake (2.77 crore shares) plus 1% green-shoe; floor price ₹303, ~10% below the prior close. Non-retail bidding on 9 June, retail on 10 June. source
09 Jun 2026NLC India shares fall ~5% as OFS opens for non-retail investors — Stock fell as much as 4.66% to ₹320 on BSE on the OFS non-retail day; by noon non-retail portion was 11.41% subscribed at an indicative price of ₹304.97. Shareholding later showed promoter stake at 69.47% (Jun 2026 quarter) vs 72.20% earlier. source
13 Jun 2026Ghatampur (NUPPL) Unit-3 of 660 MW declared commercially operational — JV Neyveli Uttar Pradesh Power Ltd declared COD of Unit-3 (660 MW), completing the 1,980 MW Ghatampur thermal project; NLC group installed capacity rose from 7,745 MW to 8,405 MW. source
24 Jun 2026NLC India Renewables and OREDA sign JV for 1,000 MW of green energy in Odisha — Subsidiary NLC India Renewables Ltd and Odisha Renewable Energy Development Agency formed a JV targeting 525 MW pumped storage/BESS, 250 MW wind and 225 MW floating solar in Odisha. source
What happened next (17 Jul 2026 → 19 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹295.60 to ₹244.35 by 19 Oct 2026 (-17.3%) while the Nifty 50 moved -5.9% — underperforming by 11.4 points.
Highest ₹307.70 on 07 Aug 2026; lowest ₹239.50 on 09 Oct 2026.
S1 292.92: broken on a closing basis on 22 Jul 2026.
S2 261.10: broken on a closing basis on 15 Sep 2026.
R1 316.98: not cleared on a closing basis.
R2 329.00: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 12 Aug 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 07 Aug 2026): revenue ₹4,717 crore (+23.3% YoY), net profit ₹436 crore (-48.0% YoY), operating margin 31% vs 24% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
07 Aug 2026NLC India announces Q1 FY27 results — Board approved Q1 FY27 results on 7 Aug 2026. Consolidated revenue from operations ₹4,716.75 crore (up ~23% YoY); consolidated PBT ₹651.55 crore (up ~10%); consolidated net profit ₹436.27 crore, lower YoY owing to exceptional items in the Q1 FY26 base. Standalone PAT ₹374.28 crore (up 2%). source
27 Aug 2026NLC India to hold analyst and investor meeting in Mumbai on 1 September — Company intimated one-on-one meetings with institutional investors and analysts in Mumbai on 1 Sep 2026; no unpublished price-sensitive information to be discussed. source
05 Sep 2026NLC India board approves USD 100 million ECB; fixes record date for final dividend — Board approved an unsecured USD 100 million external commercial borrowing from Punjab National Bank for thermal, mining and diversification capex, and fixed 22 Sep 2026 as record date for the FY26 final dividend. source
29 Sep 2026NLC India 70th AGM approves FY26 dividend and transfer of RE assets to subsidiary — All 11 resolutions passed at the AGM held 29 Sep 2026, including final dividend of ₹0.25/share (total FY26 ₹3.85 with interim ₹3.60) and a special resolution to transfer renewable assets to NLC India Renewables Ltd. source
12 Oct 2026NLC India issues ₹1,000 crore of commercial paper — Company allotted 20,000 commercial papers of ₹5 lakh face value each, aggregating ₹1,000 crore, on 12 Oct 2026. source
Educational summary. On 17 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned negative and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -17.3% against -5.9% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message lined up with what followed. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold NLC India today.
Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 20 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction