Hydropower generator (PSU)Historical case study · data as of 17 Jul 2026 · published 20 Oct 2026 (95 days later)
NHPC — 100-point case study
How NHPC looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 17 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Codes
NSE: NHPC · BSE: 533098
Close on 17 Jul 2026
₹79.20
Market cap then
₹79,602 crore
Valuation
P/E 18.9× · P/B 1.92×
Momentum
RSI (14) 53 · 1-year return -9.8%
Next 3 months
-10.7% vs Nifty 50 -5.9% (to 19 Oct 2026)
Scorecard
Technical — 50 points
11 bullish · 28 neutral · 1 caution · 9 bearish — the picture was mixed.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: The government sold about 6% of NHPC through an offer for sale in early June 2026, so promoter holding fell from 67.40% (Mar 2026) to 61.39% (Jun 2026). Screener's consolidated profit includes minority interest and differs from the attributable profit in company releases.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 17 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.04%/day
Neutral
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.04% a day — a flat, sideways phase.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return -2.7%
Neutral
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.04%/day) and the stock was -2.7% over three months, so the medium-term picture was neutral.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return -9.8%
Neutral
Compared with a year earlier the price was -9.8%. Little net progress over twelve months.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 77.76 / 30W 78.12
Neutral
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close tangled between the 10-week and 30-week averages.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 81.69→82.50; lows 71.62→77.76
Bullish
The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
18.7
Neutral
ADX at 18.7 signals a weak or absent trend (below 20) — range-bound conditions. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 21.8 / –DI 17.0
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
79.28 (-0.1%)
Bearish
Close of 79.20 was 0.1% below the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
77.79 (+1.8%)
Bullish
Close of 79.20 was 1.8% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
79.26 (-0.1%)
Bearish
Close of 79.20 was 0.1% below the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was negative.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 79.15 / 21E 78.77
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 24 Jun 2026.
The 50-day average was 1.9% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
-1.0% in 20 sessions
Bearish
The 50-day average fell 1.0% over the past month — declining.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
79 / 78 / 78 / 79
Neutral
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
79.57 (-0.5%)
Bearish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 79.57; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
53.1
Neutral
RSI at 53.1 was in the neutral 45–55 zone.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
none
Neutral
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 0.47 / signal 0.57
Bearish
MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
0.04 → -0.10
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.48 (bands 76.78–81.78)
Neutral
%B of 0.48 — inside the bands, lower half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 6.3% (2nd pct of 6M)
Caution
Band width was at the 2nd percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown).
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹1.70 (2.2% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹1.70, or 2.2% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
21.6% vs 1Y 24.1%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 21.6%, close to the one-year level of 24.1%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
75.62–81.98
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
0.80
Neutral
A beta of 0.80 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 0.44× / 5-day 0.49×
Neutral
The final session traded 0.44× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.49× — lighter than usual participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 2.19
Bullish
Average volume on up days was 2.19× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
About ₹150 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹500 crore a day is highly liquid, above ₹50 crore liquid, below that moderately liquid.
F. Price levels
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
38
Support levels (S1/S2/S3)
75.59 / 71.69
Neutral
Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 75.59, 4.8% below the close, then 71.69.
How to read: Information only. Levels to watch, not good or bad.
39
Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)
80.02 / 86.79
Neutral
Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 80.02, 1.0% above the close, then 86.79.
How to read: Information only.
40
Monthly pivot points (for next month)
P 79.82 | R1 81.88 | S1 77.14
Neutral
Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 79.82; the close was below it.
How to read: Information only.
41
Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)
23.6% 83 | 38.2% 81 | 50.0% 79 | 61.8% 77
Neutral
Measuring the 6-month rise from 71.62 to 86.83, the close was nearest the 50.0% retracement at 79.22.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 89.75 / L 71.62
Neutral
The close was 11.8% below the 52-week high and 10.6% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
none
Neutral
No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
broad sideways range
Neutral
Rule-based pattern scan: broad sideways range. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 74.63–82.50
Neutral
The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 74.63–82.50.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Bullish engulfing
Bullish
On 17 Jul the candle opened 78.83, ranged 78.40–79.45 and closed 79.20: Bullish engulfing. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
47
Ichimoku Cloud
cloud 77.35–79.32; Tenkan 78.94 / Kijun 77.06
Neutral
Price was inside the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — an undecided Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M +5.4% / 3M -3.2%
Bearish
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 3.2 points over three months and outperformed by 5.4 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +2.3%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 2.3 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
11 bullish · 9 bearish · 28 neutral · 1 caution
Neutral
Across the 49 readings the technical picture was mixed. Levels that mattered: support 75.59, resistance 80.02. This is a description of the chart on 17 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 17 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 17 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
18.9×
Neutral
At ₹79.20 the market valued the company at about ₹79,602 crore, or 18.9× the ₹4,220 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
1.92×
Neutral
Market cap was 1.92× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹41,437 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
6.85×
Neutral
The company was valued at 6.85× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹11,616 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
28.2×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹52,327 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 28.2× trailing operating profit of ₹4,678 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
5.3%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹5.3 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
n/m
Neutral
PEG is not meaningful because 3-year profit growth was -0.3%. Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹1,449 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
2.41%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹1.91 a share, a 2.41% yield on the ₹79.20 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹79,602 cr
Neutral
At about ₹0.80 lakh crore the company was a mid-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹62.41 vs ₹79.20
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹62.41; the price was 27% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+11.9%
Bullish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹11,615 crore, +11.9% versus FY25.
FY26 net profit was ₹4,220 crore, +23.7% on FY25's ₹3,412 crore. Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹1,449 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Bullish above 10% · Bearish below 0% · Neutral 0–10%. Caution if a one-off item distorted the figure.
13
Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)
+68.4%
Caution
Quarterly profit was ₹1,549 crore versus ₹920 crore a year earlier (+68.4%). Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹1,449 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Revenue compounded at 3.1% a year from FY23 to FY26.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%. Caution if an acquisition inflated it.
15
Profit CAGR (3 years)
-0.3%
Caution
Net profit compounded at -0.3% a year from FY23 to FY26. Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹1,449 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
16
Revenue CAGR (5 years)
3.8%
Bearish
Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 3.8% a year.
Bullish above 12% a year · Bearish below 5% a year · Neutral 5–12%.
17
EPS growth FY26 (reported)
+25.4%
Caution
Reported EPS went from ₹2.99 to ₹3.75 (+25.4%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues). Note: the Dec 2025 quarter carried unusual other income of ₹1,449 crore — a one-off that distorts year-on-year profit comparisons.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
2 strength(s) · 6 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 53.3%; Debtor days have improved from 114 to 82.6 days. Weaknesses: The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 3.78% over past five years; Tax rate seems low; Company has a low return on equity of 8.79% over last 3 years; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost; Earnings include an other income of Rs.2,609 Cr; Promoter holding has decreased over last 3 years: -9.56%. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
4 bullish · 9 bearish · 31 neutral · 5 caution
Bearish
On the numbers published by 17 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned negative. Valuation: P/E 18.9×, P/B 1.92×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 17 Apr 2026 – 17 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
05 May 2026NHPC declares commercial operation of Unit 4 of Subansiri Lower HEP — Fourth 250 MW unit of the 2,000 MW Subansiri Lower project declared commercial; 1,000 MW (50%) of the project now operational. source
25 May 2026NHPC FY26 profit rises 25% to Rs 3,766 crore; total dividend Rs 1.61 per share — FY26 PAT Rs 3,766 crore vs Rs 3,007 crore; revenue from operations Rs 11,615 crore (+12%); generation 29,619 MU (+16%); consolidated capex Rs 13,689 crore. source
01 Jun 2026Government announces OFS of up to 6% in NHPC at Rs 71 floor price — Base offer 3% plus 3% green shoe; non-retail bidding 2 June, retail 3 June 2026. source
03 Jun 2026Government exercises oversubscription option, raising NHPC OFS to 6% — Offer increased from 30.13 crore to 60.27 crore shares citing strong demand; promoter holding fell from 67.40% (Mar 2026) to 61.39% (Jun 2026) per Screener. source
16 Jun 2026NHPC signs MoA with Arunachal Pradesh for 3,097 MW Etalin hydro project — Run-of-river project in Dibang basin on BOOT basis with 40-year lease from COD. source
What happened next (17 Jul 2026 → 19 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹79.20 to ₹70.70 by 19 Oct 2026 (-10.7%) while the Nifty 50 moved -5.9% — underperforming by 4.8 points.
Highest ₹83.00 on 21 Jul 2026; lowest ₹70.25 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 75.59: broken on a closing basis on 28 Aug 2026.
S2 71.69: broken on a closing basis on 08 Oct 2026.
R1 80.02: cleared on a closing basis on 20 Jul 2026.
R2 86.79: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was below it at the snapshot and crossed above on 20 Jul 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 04 Aug 2026): revenue ₹3,808 crore (+18.5% YoY), net profit ₹1,178 crore (+4.2% YoY), operating margin 62% vs 56% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
04 Aug 2026NHPC Q1 FY27 results: consolidated revenue up 18.5%, profit up modestly — Consolidated revenue from operations Rs 3,808.31 crore; PAT attributable to owners Rs 1,095.87 crore vs Rs 1,065.02 crore; standalone PAT Rs 1,113.41 crore (+3.9%). Board approved results on 4 Aug 2026. source
11 Aug 2026NHPC targets Rs 15,000 crore consolidated capex for FY27 — Installed capacity 9,333 MW; 9,204 MW under construction; remaining four Subansiri Lower units due Q4 FY27. source
03 Sep 2026NHPC records monthly power generation of 4,695.74 MU in August 2026 — Company reported record monthly generation for August 2026. source
13 Oct 2026Fifth unit of Subansiri Lower synchronised; project at 1,250 MW — Fifth 250 MW unit synchronised with grid on 12 Oct 2026, taking synchronised capacity to 1,250 MW of 2,000 MW. source
Educational summary. On 17 Jul 2026 the technical picture was mixed and the fundamental picture leaned negative. Over the next three months the stock moved -10.7% against -5.9% for the Nifty 50. A mixed chart gave no clear message, and the outcome shows why mixed readings are hard to act on. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold NHPC today.
Method designed by our founder, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 20 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction