PharmaceuticalsHistorical case study · data as of 03 Jul 2026 · published 07 Oct 2026 (96 days later)
Sun Pharma — 100-point case study
How Sun Pharma looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 03 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.
Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance
Data note: Sun Pharma agreed on 27 Apr 2026 to buy Organon (about $11.75 bn enterprise value, expected to close in early 2027). Price moves around that date reflect the pending deal, which is not in the FY26 financials.
Technical analysis — 50 points
Calculated by code from daily prices up to 03 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Trend
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
Short-term trend (20 days)
slope +0.34%/day
Bullish
Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.34% a day — a short-term uptrend.
Bullish slope above +0.10% a day (short-term uptrend) · Bearish slope below –0.10% a day (short-term downtrend) · Neutral between the two: a flat, sideways phase.
2
Medium-term trend (~5 months)
3M return +8.4%
Bullish
The 100-session trend line was up (+0.08%/day) and the stock was +8.4% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
Bullish slope above +0.05% a day · Bearish slope below –0.05% a day · Neutral in between.
3
Long-term trend (1 year)
1Y return +13.4%
Bullish
Compared with a year earlier the price was +13.4%. A strong positive year.
Bullish up more than 10% in a year · Bearish down more than 10% in a year · Neutral between –10% and +10%.
4
Weekly chart trend
10W 1,837.40 / 30W 1,755.20
Bullish
On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
Bullish weekly close above the 10-week average, which is above the 30-week · Bearish weekly close below the 10-week average, which is below the 30-week · Neutral when they are tangled.
5
Swing structure (highs/lows)
last highs 1,916.60→1,902.40; lows 1,613.60→1,756.80
Neutral
The two most recent swing points showed a lower high but a higher low — mixed structure.
Bullish higher highs and higher lows (uptrend structure) · Bearish lower highs and lower lows (downtrend structure) · Neutral when one is higher and the other lower.
6
ADX (14) — trend strength
26.4
Bullish
ADX at 26.4 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
Bullish ADX 20 or more with +DI above –DI (a real trend, pointing up) · Bearish ADX 20 or more with –DI above +DI (a real trend, pointing down) · Neutral below 20: no clear trend. 20–30 is a moderate trend, above 30 a strong one.
7
+DI vs –DI
+DI 30.5 / –DI 8.9
Bullish
+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.
Bullish +DI above –DI · Bearish –DI above +DI · No neutral zone for this point.
B. Moving averages
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
8
Price vs 20-day SMA
1,833.80 (+3.9%)
Bullish
Close of 1,904.80 was 3.9% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
9
Price vs 50-day SMA
1,821.19 (+4.6%)
Bullish
Close of 1,904.80 was 4.6% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
10
Price vs 200-day SMA
1,740.57 (+9.4%)
Bullish
Close of 1,904.80 was 9.4% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
Bullish close above the average · Bearish close below the average · No neutral zone.
11
9 / 21 EMA crossover
9E 1,868.17 / 21E 1,847.06
Bullish
The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 19 Jun 2026.
The 50-day average was 4.6% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
Bullish 50-day above 200-day (after a “golden cross”) · Bearish 50-day below 200-day (after a “death cross”) · No neutral zone.
13
50-day SMA slope
+2.6% in 20 sessions
Bullish
The 50-day average rose 2.6% over the past month — rising.
Bullish rose more than 0.5% · Bearish fell more than 0.5% · Neutral in between: flattening.
14
MA ribbon alignment
1,834 / 1,821 / 1,779 / 1,741
Bullish
The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bullish (20 > 50 > 100 > 200).
Bullish neatly stacked 20 > 50 > 100 > 200 · Bearish neatly stacked 20 < 50 < 100 < 200 · Neutral when tangled (a transition or range).
15
Monthly anchored VWAP
1,885.01 (+1.1%)
Bullish
Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 1,885.01; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.
Bullish close above VWAP (that month’s buyers on average in profit) · Bearish close below VWAP · No neutral zone.
C. Momentum
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
16
RSI (14)
69.6
Bullish
RSI at 69.6 showed positive momentum without being overbought.
Bullish RSI 55–70 (positive momentum, not stretched) · Bearish RSI 30–45 (soft momentum) · Neutral 45–55. Caution at 70 or above (overbought) or 30 or below (oversold).
17
RSI divergence (last 40 days)
bullish divergence
Bullish
Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI made a higher low — selling momentum was fading.
Bullish bullish divergence: price made a lower low but RSI a higher low · Caution for a bearish divergence (price higher high, RSI lower high). Neutral when RSI moved in line with price.
18
MACD line vs signal
MACD 19.98 / signal 14.26
Bullish
MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
Bullish MACD above signal · Bearish MACD below signal · No neutral zone.
19
MACD histogram (5-day change)
7.16 → 5.72
Bearish
The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
Bullish up more than 2% · Bearish down more than 2% · Neutral between –2% and +2%.
D. Volatility
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
25
Bollinger Band position (%B)
%B 0.96 (bands 1,755.90–1,911.69)
Neutral
%B of 0.96 — inside the bands, upper half.
How to read: Caution above 1 or below 0 (outside the bands — an overextended move). Neutral inside the bands.
26
Bollinger width / squeeze
width 8.5% (41st pct of 6M)
Neutral
Band width was at the 41st percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
How to read: Caution when the width is in the lowest 15% of six months (a “squeeze” that often comes before a bigger move, direction unknown). Neutral otherwise.
27
ATR (14)
₹31.67 (1.7% of price)
Neutral
A typical day's range was about ₹31.67, or 1.7% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
How to read: Information only. A higher % means bigger normal daily swings.
28
Historical volatility (30-day)
14.1% vs 1Y 19.6%
Neutral
Annualised 30-day volatility was 14.1%, below the one-year level of 19.6%.
How to read: Caution when 30-day volatility is more than 1.25× the one-year level. Neutral otherwise.
29
Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)
1,786.43–1,910.24
Neutral
The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
Bullish close above the upper channel (strong upward push) · Bearish close below the lower channel · Neutral inside the channel.
30
Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)
0.55
Neutral
A beta of 0.55 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.1 moves more than the market, below 0.9 less, around 1 in line.
E. Volume & money flow
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
31
Volume vs 20-day average
last day 1.07× / 5-day 0.88×
Neutral
The final session traded 1.07× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 0.88× — normal participation.
How to read: Information only. Above 1.2× is heavier than usual participation, below 0.8× lighter.
32
Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)
ratio 0.84
Bearish
Average volume on up days was 0.84× that on down days — distribution-leaning.
Bullish ratio above 1.15 (accumulation-leaning) · Bearish ratio below 0.85 (distribution-leaning) · Neutral between 0.85 and 1.15.
33
On-Balance Volume (20d)
OBV rising
Bullish
OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
Measuring the 6-month rise from 1,583.70 to 1,925.10, the close was nearest the 23.6% retracement at 1,844.53.
How to read: Information only.
42
52-week high / low
H 1,925.10 / L 1,548.00
Bullish
The close was 1.1% below the 52-week high and 23.0% above the 52-week low.
Bullish within 5% of the 52-week high · Bearish within 5% of the 52-week low · Neutral in between.
43
Unfilled price gaps (6M)
none
Neutral
No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.
How to read: Information only.
G. Patterns
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
44
Price structure / chart pattern
rising channel
Bullish
Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
Bullish rising channel (both trends up) · Bearish falling channel (both trends down) · Neutral for tight consolidation, a bounce in a downtrend, a pullback in an uptrend, or a sideways range.
45
Breakout / breakdown (20-day)
range 1,766.10–1,902.40
Bullish
The close was breakout above the prior 20-day range of 1,766.10–1,902.40 — a range break.
Bullish close above the 20-day high (breakout) · Bearish close below the 20-day low (breakdown) · Neutral inside the range.
46
Latest candlestick
Ordinary green candle
Neutral
On 03 Jul the candle opened 1,880.00, ranged 1,871.60–1,925.10 and closed 1,904.80: Ordinary green candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
Bullish hammer, bullish engulfing or bullish marubozu · Bearish shooting star, bearish engulfing or bearish marubozu · Neutral for a doji, inside bar or ordinary candle. Single candles are weak signals.
Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.
Bullish close above the cloud · Bearish close below the cloud · Neutral inside the cloud.
H. Relative strength & summary
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
48
Relative strength vs Nifty 50
1M +2.8% / 3M -0.3%
Neutral
The stock underperformed the Nifty 50 by 0.3 points over three months and outperformed by 2.8 points over one month.
Bullish ahead of the Nifty 50 by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
49
Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)
6M +16.8%
Bullish
No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 16.8 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
Bullish ahead by more than 2 points · Bearish behind by more than 2 points · Neutral within ±2 points.
50
Technical summary
28 bullish · 4 bearish · 16 neutral · 1 caution
Bullish
Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 1,855.90, resistance n/a. This is a description of the chart on 03 Jul 2026, not a forecast. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The chart is called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more, negative when bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 5 or more (“positive”) · Bearish bearish tags beat bullish ones by 5 or more (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
Fundamental analysis — 50 points
Uses only results published by 03 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 03 Jul 2026 close.
How to read the tags. Each of the 50 points gets one tag. Bullish the reading was favourable. Bearish the reading was unfavourable. Neutral the reading was in a normal range, or gave no clear message. Caution a warning sign or an unusual reading that deserves a closer look. Point 50 counts the other 49 tags. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Under each point you will see what reading earns which tag. Tags describe the data on the snapshot date. They are not signals to buy or sell. Full guide to all 100 points →
A. Valuation
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
1
P/E (trailing 12 months)
39.7×
Neutral
At ₹1,904.80 the market valued the company at about ₹4,57,077 crore, or 39.7× the ₹11,509 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
How to read: Information only. Below 15 is a low multiple, 15–30 moderate, above 30 a premium (the market expects growth). Compare with peers and the company’s own history.
2
Price / Book
5.47×
Neutral
Market cap was 5.47× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹83,570 crore.
How to read: Information only. Main yardstick for banks; asset-light businesses usually trade at high P/B.
3
Price / Sales
7.82×
Neutral
The company was valued at 7.82× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹58,462 crore.
How to read: Information only.
4
EV / EBITDA (approx.)
26.0×
Neutral
Enterprise value (market cap + ₹4,627 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 26.0× trailing operating profit of ₹17,731 crore.
How to read: Information only. Lower means cheaper relative to operating profit.
5
Earnings yield
2.5%
Neutral
The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹2.5 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
How to read: Information only. Often compared with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6
PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)
3.76
Bearish
P/E of 39.7 divided by 3-year profit growth of 10.6% a year gives a PEG of 3.76. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
Bullish below 1 (growth cheaply priced) · Bearish above 2 (growth expensively priced) · Neutral 1–2, or when profit did not grow (not meaningful).
7
Dividend yield (trailing 12M)
0.87%
Neutral
Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹16.5 a share, a 0.87% yield on the ₹1,904.80 price.
Bullish above 3% · Neutral at 3% or less. Never tagged Bearish.
8
Market capitalisation
₹4,57,077 cr
Neutral
At about ₹4.57 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
How to read: Information only. Above ₹1 lakh crore large-cap, ₹30,000 crore–₹1 lakh crore mid-cap, below that small-cap (our rule of thumb).
9
Graham number vs price
₹613.05 vs ₹1,904.80
Neutral
Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹613.05; the price was 211% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.
Bullish price below the Graham number · Neutral when the price is above it (most quality companies are).
B. Growth
#
Point
Reading
Tag
Commentary
10
Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)
+11.2%
Bullish
Revenue for FY26 was ₹58,462 crore, +11.2% versus FY25.
Bullish all tests passed, or all but one · Bearish half the tests or fewer passed · Neutral in between.
49
Automated screen flags
2 strength(s) · 1 weakness(es)
Neutral
Strengths: Company is almost debt free; Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 34.1%. Weaknesses: The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 11.8% over past five years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
How to read: Information only.
50
Fundamental summary
13 bullish · 4 bearish · 32 neutral · 0 caution
Bullish
On the numbers published by 03 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 39.7×, P/B 5.47×. This describes the data, not a recommendation. How to read the score: the strongest possible reading is 49 bullish · 0 bearish, and the weakest is 0 bullish · 49 bearish. Most companies land in between. The numbers are called positive when bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5 times as many, negative the other way round, and mixed otherwise. Even a 49–0 score describes the past and is not a reason to buy, and a 0–49 score is not a reason to sell.
Bullish bullish tags beat bearish ones by 4 or more and are at least 1.5× as many (“positive”) · Bearish the same the other way round (“negative”) · Neutral (“mixed”) otherwise. Strongest possible: 49 bullish · 0 bearish.
News in the three months before the snapshot
Company news from 03 Apr 2026 – 03 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.
27 Apr 2026Sun Pharma agrees to acquire Organon & Co in all-cash deal valued at about $11.75 billion — Sun Pharma announced an agreement to acquire New York-listed Organon at $14 per share (enterprise value about $11.75 billion), to be funded through internal accruals and debt; closing was expected in early 2027, subject to regulatory and Organon shareholder approvals. source
22 May 2026Sun Pharma reports Q4 FY26 results; board recommends final dividend of Rs 5 per share — Q4 FY26 consolidated revenue was about Rs 14,612 crore (up about 12.8% YoY) and net profit about Rs 2,714 crore (up about 26% YoY). The board recommended a final dividend of Rs 5 per share, taking the FY26 total to Rs 16 including the Rs 11 interim. source
22 May 2026Sun Pharma's US generics business remains under pressure in FY26 — Business Standard reported that Sun Pharma's US revenue declined about 0.9% in FY26, with the US generics business under pressure while specialty products grew. source
11 Jun 2026Sun Pharma fixes July 7 record date for FY26 final dividend; AGM on July 31 — The company set July 7, 2026 as the record date for the Rs 5 per share final dividend, with the AGM scheduled for July 31, 2026 and payment on or before August 7, 2026. source
20 Jun 2026Sun Pharma to acquire 100% stake in Innovcare Lifesciences for about $28.7 million — Sun Pharma announced the acquisition of the entire stake in Innovcare Lifesciences for about $28.7 million (about Rs 271 crore), adding to its India portfolio. source
What happened next (03 Jul 2026 → 06 Oct 2026)
Price went from ₹1,904.80 to ₹1,804.10 by 06 Oct 2026 (-5.3%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.2% — outperforming by 0.9 points.
Highest ₹2,046.90 on 31 Jul 2026; lowest ₹1,768.00 on 06 Oct 2026.
S1 1,855.90: broken on a closing basis on 11 Sep 2026.
S2 1,669.14: held on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 01 Oct 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 31 Jul 2026): revenue ₹15,300 crore (+10.5% YoY), net profit ₹2,901 crore (+26.5% YoY), operating margin 29% vs 31% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).
Later news
25 Jul 2026Organon shareholders approve acquisition by Sun Pharma — Organon & Co shareholders approved the proposed acquisition, under which Organon would become a wholly owned subsidiary of Sun Pharmaceutical Holdings USA; completion remains subject to regulatory approvals and other customary conditions. source
31 Jul 2026Sun Pharma Q1 FY27 net profit rises 27% to about Rs 2,895 crore; revenue up 10.5% — Consolidated revenue from operations was about Rs 15,300 crore (up 10.5% YoY) and net profit about Rs 2,895 crore (up 27%). EBITDA rose 2.7% to about Rs 4,418 crore, with margin at 28.9% versus 31.1% a year earlier; India formulations grew 16% while US generics remained under pressure. source
01 Sep 2026Sun Pharma signs US commitment on most-favoured-nation drug pricing — Sun Pharma said it joined a White House event committing to extend most-favoured-nation pricing to state Medicaid programs and for future innovative medicine launches; the company said the US accounts for about 27% of its global revenue. source
08 Sep 2026Moody's and S&P assign investment-grade ratings to Sun Pharma ahead of Organon deal — Moody's assigned a Baa1 rating and S&P a BBB+ rating, both with stable outlooks, in connection with the proposed Organon acquisition. source
28 Sep 2026Sun Pharma secures global rights to cholesterol drug lerodalcibep outside US and China — Sun Pharma obtained exclusive rights to commercialise and manufacture LIB Therapeutics' once-monthly PCSK9 inhibitor lerodalcibep outside the US and China, after its EU approval; LIB receives upfront, milestone and royalty payments. source
Educational summary. On 03 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -5.3% against -6.2% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Sun Pharma today.
Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.
Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 07 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction
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