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Decorative paints Historical case study · data as of 01 Jul 2026 · published 04 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Asian Paints — 100-point case study

How Asian Paints looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 01 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: ASIANPAINT · BSE: 500820
Close on 01 Jul 2026	₹2,716.40
Market cap then	₹2,60,557 crore
Valuation	P/E 59.3× · P/B 12.19×
Momentum	RSI (14) 58 · 1-year return +14.6%
Next 3 months	-11.4% vs Nifty 50 -6.6% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

22 bullish · 22 neutral · 2 caution · 3 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Fundamental — 50 points

16 bullish · 30 neutral · 0 caution · 3 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 01 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope -0.03%/day	Neutral	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was falling about 0.03% a day — a flat, sideways phase.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +19.7%	Bullish	The 100-session trend line was up (+0.19%/day) and the stock was +19.7% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return +14.6%	Bullish	Compared with a year earlier the price was +14.6%. A strong positive year.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 2,649.00 / 30W 2,540.60	Bullish	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 2,778.80→2,832.70; lows 2,385.50→2,607.90	Bullish	The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	27.8	Bullish	ADX at 27.8 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 25.1 / –DI 15.7	Bullish	+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	2,695.08 (+0.8%)	Bullish	Close of 2,716.40 was 0.8% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	2,616.18 (+3.8%)	Bullish	Close of 2,716.40 was 3.8% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	2,558.93 (+6.2%)	Bullish	Close of 2,716.40 was 6.2% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 2,680.77 / 21E 2,675.41	Bullish	The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 13 Apr 2026.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	last golden cross 17 Jun 2026	Bullish	The 50-day average was 2.2% above the 200-day. The most recent signal was a golden cross on 17 Jun 2026.
13	50-day SMA slope	+7.1% in 20 sessions	Bullish	The 50-day average rose 7.1% over the past month — rising.
14	MA ribbon alignment	2,695 / 2,616 / 2,468 / 2,559	Neutral	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	2,687.80 (+1.1%)	Bullish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 2,687.80; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	57.7	Bullish	RSI at 57.7 showed positive momentum without being overbought.
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	bearish divergence	Caution	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bearish divergence: price made a higher high but RSI made a lower high.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD 16.89 / signal 29.07	Bearish	MACD was below its signal line — momentum turning or staying negative.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	-13.58 → -12.19	Bullish	The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
20	MACD vs zero line	16.89	Bullish	MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 20.1 / %D 13.7	Bullish	Slow stochastic at 20.1 was mid-range with %K above %D.
22	Williams %R (14)	-55.7	Neutral	%R of -55.7 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range.
23	CCI (20)	-19	Neutral	CCI at -19 was within the normal ±100 band.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	-1.2%	Neutral	Price changed -1.2% over ten sessions.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.64 (bands 2,617.24–2,772.92)	Neutral	%B of 0.64 — inside the bands, upper half.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 5.8% (12th pct of 6M)	Caution	Band width was at the 12th percentile of the last six months. A squeeze like this often precedes a larger move (direction unknown).
27	ATR (14)	₹58.53 (2.2% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹58.53, or 2.2% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	17.3% vs 1Y 23.9%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 17.3%, below the one-year level of 23.9%.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	2,561.10–2,792.87	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	0.97	Neutral	A beta of 0.97 means the stock tended to move roughly in line with the Nifty 50 day to day.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.75× / 5-day 1.50×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.75× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.50× — heavier than usual participation.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 1.07	Neutral	Average volume on up days was 1.07× that on down days — balanced.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV rising	Bullish	OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.17	Bearish	CMF at -0.17 indicated net outflows.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	55.7	Bullish	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 55.7.
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹393 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹393 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	2,607.90 / 2,492.38 / 2,372.60	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 2,607.90, 4.2% below the close, then 2,492.38, 2,372.60.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	2,804.78 / 2,920.70 / 2,985.70	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 2,804.78, 3.3% above the close, then 2,920.70, 2,985.70.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 2,687.80 \| R1 2,751.60 \| S1 2,652.60	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 2,687.80; the close was above it.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 2,304 \| 38.2% 2,420 \| 50.0% 2,515 \| 61.8% 2,609	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month fall from 2,914.50 to 2,115.00, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 2,609.09.
42	52-week high / low	H 2,985.70 / L 2,115.00	Neutral	The close was 9.0% below the 52-week high and 28.4% above the 52-week low.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	2 open; latest gap-up 15 Apr at 2,362.50	Neutral	There were 2 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 15 Apr 2026, left an open level at 2,362.50 that price had not revisited.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	pullback inside a larger uptrend	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: pullback inside a larger uptrend. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 2,607.90–2,832.70	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 2,607.90–2,832.70.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary green candle	Neutral	On 01 Jul the candle opened 2,648.00, ranged 2,624.00–2,723.00 and closed 2,716.40: Ordinary green candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 2,390.35–2,554.22; Tenkan 2,694.50 / Kijun 2,720.30	Bullish	Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was below the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M +0.5% / 3M +16.7%	Bullish	The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 16.7 points over three months and outperformed by 0.5 points over one month.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M +5.0%	Bullish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 5.0 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
50	Technical summary	22 bullish · 3 bearish · 22 neutral · 2 caution	Bullish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 2,607.90, resistance 2,804.78. This is a description of the chart on 01 Jul 2026, not a forecast.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 01 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 01 Jul 2026 close.

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	59.3×	Neutral	At ₹2,716.40 the market valued the company at about ₹2,60,557 crore, or 59.3× the ₹4,394 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
2	Price / Book	12.19×	Neutral	Market cap was 12.19× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹21,372 crore.
3	Price / Sales	7.32×	Neutral	The company was valued at 7.32× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹35,584 crore.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	39.5×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹3,929 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 39.5× trailing operating profit of ₹6,696 crore.
5	Earnings yield	1.7%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹1.7 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	37.90	Bearish	P/E of 59.3 divided by 3-year profit growth of 1.6% a year gives a PEG of 37.90. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	1.01%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹27.5 a share, a 1.01% yield on the ₹2,716.40 price.
8	Market capitalisation	₹2,60,557 cr	Neutral	At about ₹2.61 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
9	Graham number vs price	₹479.22 vs ₹2,716.40	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹479.22; the price was 467% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+4.9%	Neutral	Revenue for FY26 was ₹35,584 crore, +4.9% versus FY25.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+10.6%	Bullish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹9,247 crore of revenue, +10.6% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	+18.5%	Bullish	FY26 net profit was ₹4,395 crore, +18.5% on FY25's ₹3,710 crore.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	+69.0%	Bullish	Quarterly profit was ₹1,185 crore versus ₹701 crore a year earlier (+69.0%).
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	1.0%	Bearish	Revenue compounded at 1.0% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	1.6%	Bearish	Net profit compounded at 1.6% a year from FY23 to FY26.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	10.4%	Neutral	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 10.4% a year.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	+17.9%	Bullish	Reported EPS went from ₹38.23 to ₹45.09 (+17.9%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	19%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 19% of sales in FY26 versus 18% in FY25.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	18% → 18% → 20% → 19%	Neutral	Quarterly margins moved from 18% to 19% over the last four quarters — broadly stable.
20	Net profit margin FY26	12.4%	Neutral	₹12.4 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21	Return on equity FY26	21.6%	Bullish	FY26 profit was 21.6% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22	ROCE FY26	26%	Bullish	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 26% in FY26.
23	Return on assets FY26	12.73%	Neutral	Net profit was 12.73% of total assets.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	27%	Neutral	The company paid about 27% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	12%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹728 crore made up 12% of pre-tax profit.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.18	Bullish	Borrowings of ₹3,929 crore were 0.18× equity — very low leverage.
27	Debt / EBITDA	0.59×	Bullish	Debt equalled 0.59 years of FY26 operating profit.
28	Interest coverage	31.8×	Bullish	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 31.8 times.
29	Book value growth	+10.2%	Bullish	Shareholders' equity grew +10.2% from ₹19,400 crore to ₹21,372 crore in FY26.
30	Capital work in progress	₹1,849 cr (19% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 19% of fixed assets — a modest pipeline.
31	Working capital days	38 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled 38 days of sales (FY25: 52). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations.
32	Cash conversion cycle	84 days	Neutral	It took 84 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit.
33	Debtor days	46 (FY25 46)	Neutral	Customers took 46 days on average to pay, versus 46 a year earlier.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹7,088 cr	Bullish	The business generated ₹7,088 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹4,424 crore in FY25.
35	Free cash flow FY26	₹5,604 cr	Bullish	After capital spending, free cash flow was ₹5,604 crore.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	1.61×	Bullish	Operating cash flow was 1.61× reported profit — profits were well backed by cash.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	2.2%	Neutral	FY26 free cash flow was 2.2% of the snapshot market cap.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	₹11,821 cr	Bullish	Free cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹11,821 crore.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	₹1,484 cr	Neutral	Implied capital expenditure was about ₹1,484 crore, 4.2% of sales.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	61%	Neutral	The company paid out about 61% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	58% / 65% / 61%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.0%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹96 cr → ₹96 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	52.63% (+0.00 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 52.63% at Mar 2026 versus 52.63% a year earlier.
44	Foreign institutional holding	12.11% (-0.12 pts YoY)	Neutral	FIIs held 12.11% at Mar 2026, down from 12.23% a year before.
45	Domestic institutional holding	21.74% (+6.23 pts YoY)	Bullish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 21.74%, up from 15.51%.
46	Number of shareholders	10.0 lakh (-17.5% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 12.1 lakh to 10.0 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	6/8	Neutral	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, CFO > net profit, operating margin improved, ROA improved, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: leverage fell, asset turnover improved.
49	Automated screen flags	1 strength(s) · 2 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 61.4%. Weaknesses: Stock is trading at 10.8 times its book value; The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 10.4% over past five years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50	Fundamental summary	16 bullish · 3 bearish · 30 neutral · 0 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 01 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 59.3×, P/B 12.19×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 01 Apr 2026 – 01 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

30 Apr 2026 Asian Paints Schedules Board Meeting for Q4FY26 Results on May 29, 2026 — Asian Paints informed exchanges that its board would meet on 29 May 2026 to approve Q4 and full-year FY26 audited results and consider a final dividend. source
29 May 2026 Asian Paints Q4 profit jumps 68%; board declares Rs 23 final dividend — Q4 FY26 consolidated net profit rose about 68% year-on-year to Rs 1,185.49 crore and revenue rose 10.8% to Rs 9,246.70 crore; the board recommended a final dividend of Rs 23 per share with record date 23 June 2026. source
01 Jun 2026 Asian Paints shares gain 25% from 52-week low, fresh price targets and more — The stock had recovered about 25% from its 52-week low of Rs 2,116 hit on 23 March 2026, after Q4 results; several brokerages issued updated price targets. source
01 Jun 2026 Asian Paints Hikes Prices By 2-4% From June To Protect Margins Amid Competition — Report that Asian Paints would raise prices by 2-4% from mid-June 2026 to offset higher raw material costs such as crude derivatives and titanium dioxide, following earlier hikes in April. source

What happened next (01 Jul 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹2,716.40 to ₹2,407.00 by 01 Oct 2026 (-11.4%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.6% — underperforming by 4.8 points.
Highest ₹2,864.00 on 29 Jul 2026; lowest ₹2,377.00 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 2,607.90: broken on a closing basis on 01 Sep 2026.
S2 2,492.38: broken on a closing basis on 08 Sep 2026.
R1 2,804.78: cleared on a closing basis on 03 Aug 2026.
R2 2,920.70: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 28 Aug 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 29 Jul 2026): revenue ₹10,542 crore (+17.9% YoY), net profit ₹1,559 crore (+39.6% YoY), operating margin 21% vs 18% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).

Later news

06 Jul 2026 Asian Paints Sets July 29 for Q1 Results After 18.3% FY26 Profit Growth — Asian Paints scheduled a board meeting on 29 July 2026 to consider Q1 FY27 (April-June 2026) results. source
13 Jul 2026 Asian Paints Raises Prices Around 12% Amid West Asia Conflict, Higher Crude-Linked Raw Material Costs Pressure Margins — The company said it had raised prices by around 12% in total to counter crude-linked raw material cost increases tied to West Asia tensions; the chairman described a balanced approach. source
29 Jul 2026 Asian Paints Q1 results: Profit jumps 40% to Rs 1,539 crore; revenue rises 18% — Q1 FY27 consolidated net profit (owners' share) rose about 40% year-on-year to Rs 1,539.25 crore and revenue from operations rose 17.9% to Rs 10,541.94 crore. source
02 Sep 2026 Asian Paints to host analysts at UBS India Summit in Mumbai — Asian Paints disclosed it would take part in a group meeting at the UBS India Summit in Mumbai on 10 September 2026 and said no unpublished price-sensitive information would be shared. source

Educational summary. On 01 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -11.4% against -6.6% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Asian Paints today.

Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 04 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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