Private-sector bank Historical case study · data as of 01 Jul 2026 · published 04 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Axis Bank — 100-point case study

How Axis Bank looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 01 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: AXISBANK · BSE: 532215
Close on 01 Jul 2026	₹1,368.70
Market cap then	₹4,26,206 crore
Valuation	P/E 16.1× · P/B 1.98×
Momentum	RSI (14) 61 · 1-year return +16.7%
Next 3 months	-11.1% vs Nifty 50 -6.6% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

25 bullish · 22 neutral · 0 caution · 2 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Fundamental — 50 points

14 bullish · 30 neutral · 1 caution · 4 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Data note: Bank metrics are standalone figures as reported; Gross/Net NPA rows in the quarterly table come from Screener's standalone page.

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 01 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope +0.46%/day	Bullish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.46% a day — a short-term uptrend.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +12.0%	Neutral	The 100-session trend line was down (-0.01%/day) and the stock was +12.0% over three months, so the medium-term picture was neutral.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return +16.7%	Bullish	Compared with a year earlier the price was +16.7%. A strong positive year.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 1,308.58 / 30W 1,297.14	Bullish	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 1,317.00→1,378.00; lows 1,222.10→1,230.30	Bullish	The two most recent swing points showed higher swing highs and higher swing lows — classic uptrend structure.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	23.0	Bullish	ADX at 23.0 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 24.2 / –DI 16.4	Bullish	+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	1,334.37 (+2.6%)	Bullish	Close of 1,368.70 was 2.6% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	1,307.66 (+4.7%)	Bullish	Close of 1,368.70 was 4.7% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	1,266.92 (+8.0%)	Bullish	Close of 1,368.70 was 8.0% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 1,358.93 / 21E 1,339.51	Bullish	The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 10 Jun 2026.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bullish	The 50-day average was 3.2% above the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
13	50-day SMA slope	+2.4% in 20 sessions	Bullish	The 50-day average rose 2.4% over the past month — rising.
14	MA ribbon alignment	1,334 / 1,308 / 1,306 / 1,267	Bullish	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were perfectly stacked bullish (20 > 50 > 100 > 200).
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	1,364.03 (+0.3%)	Bullish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 1,364.03; the close was above it — buyers that month were on average in profit.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	60.7	Bullish	RSI at 60.7 showed positive momentum without being overbought.
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	none	Neutral	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: no divergence — RSI moved in line with price.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD 21.06 / signal 20.54	Bullish	MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	6.48 → 0.51	Bearish	The histogram fell over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was weakening.
20	MACD vs zero line	21.06	Bullish	MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 61.9 / %D 70.8	Bearish	Slow stochastic at 61.9 was mid-range with %K below %D.
22	Williams %R (14)	-33.8	Neutral	%R of -33.8 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range.
23	CCI (20)	54	Neutral	CCI at 54 was within the normal ±100 band.
24	Rate of change (10-day)	+0.2%	Neutral	Price changed +0.2% over ten sessions.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.70 (bands 1,248.25–1,420.48)	Neutral	%B of 0.70 — inside the bands, upper half.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 12.9% (63rd pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 63rd percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
27	ATR (14)	₹26.97 (2.0% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹26.97, or 2.0% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	19.5% vs 1Y 23.5%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 19.5%, close to the one-year level of 23.5%.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	1,287.31–1,394.61	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	1.21	Neutral	A beta of 1.21 means the stock tended to move more than the Nifty 50 day to day.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.45× / 5-day 1.12×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.45× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.12× — normal participation.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 1.00	Neutral	Average volume on up days was 1.00× that on down days — balanced.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV rising	Bullish	OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	rising (20d)	Bullish	The A/D line rose, meaning closes tended to be in the upper part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	0.07	Bullish	CMF at +0.07 indicated net inflows.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	65.5	Bullish	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 65.5.
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹949 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹949 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — highly liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	1,345.00 / 1,309.50 / 1,236.94	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 1,345.00, 1.8% below the close, then 1,309.50, 1,236.94.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	1,391.10	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 1,391.10, 1.6% above the close.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 1,364.03 \| R1 1,382.37 \| S1 1,350.37	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 1,364.03; the close was above it.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 1,214 \| 38.2% 1,253 \| 50.0% 1,284 \| 61.8% 1,316	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month fall from 1,418.30 to 1,150.30, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 1,315.92.
42	52-week high / low	H 1,418.30 / L 1,042.50	Bullish	The close was 3.5% below the 52-week high and 31.3% above the 52-week low.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	none	Neutral	No unfilled price gaps in the last six months.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	broad sideways range	Neutral	Rule-based pattern scan: broad sideways range. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 1,230.30–1,400.10	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 1,230.30–1,400.10.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary green candle	Neutral	On 01 Jul the candle opened 1,345.70, ranged 1,345.70–1,377.70 and closed 1,368.70: Ordinary green candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 1,270.65–1,281.00; Tenkan 1,371.85 / Kijun 1,315.20	Bullish	Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M +4.6% / 3M +9.0%	Bullish	The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 9.0 points over three months and outperformed by 4.6 points over one month.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty Bank	3M +3.9%	Bullish	Against its sector index (Nifty Bank) the stock was 3.9 points ahead over three months.
50	Technical summary	25 bullish · 2 bearish · 22 neutral · 0 caution	Bullish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 1,345.00, resistance 1,391.10. This is a description of the chart on 01 Jul 2026, not a forecast.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 01 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 01 Jul 2026 close.

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	16.1×	Neutral	At ₹1,368.70 the market valued the company at about ₹4,26,206 crore, or 16.1× the ₹26,548 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a moderate multiple.
2	Price / Book	1.98×	Neutral	Market cap was 1.98× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹2,15,036 crore. For a bank, P/B is the main valuation yardstick.
3	Price / Revenue (interest earned)	3.22×	Neutral	Market cap was 3.22× trailing-12-month revenue (mainly interest earned) of ₹1,32,538 crore.
4	Profit / Book (earnings power)	12.3%	Neutral	Trailing profit was 12.3% of book value — the return the bank was generating on the equity investors were paying 1.98× for.
5	Earnings yield	6.2%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹6.2 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	0.47	Bullish	P/E of 16.1 divided by 3-year profit growth of 34.5% a year gives a PEG of 0.47. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	0.07%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹1 a share, a 0.07% yield on the ₹1,368.70 price.
8	Market capitalisation	₹4,26,206 cr	Neutral	At about ₹4.26 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
9	Graham number vs price	₹1,150.94 vs ₹1,368.70	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹1,150.94; the price was 19% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+4.1%	Neutral	Revenue (interest earned) for FY26 was ₹1,32,538 crore, +4.1% versus FY25.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	+5.3%	Neutral	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹34,171 crore of revenue, +5.3% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	-5.8%	Bearish	FY26 net profit was ₹26,548 crore, -5.8% on FY25's ₹28,191 crore.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	+1.8%	Neutral	Quarterly profit was ₹7,642 crore versus ₹7,509 crore a year earlier (+1.8%).
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	14.9%	Bullish	Revenue compounded at 14.9% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	34.5%	Bullish	Net profit compounded at 34.5% a year from FY23 to FY26.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	15.5%	Bullish	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 15.5% a year.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	-6.3%	Bearish	Reported EPS went from ₹90.58 to ₹84.89 (-6.3%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Net interest margin (Q4 FY26)	3.62%	Bullish	NIM — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was 3.62% in Jan–Mar 2026 (as reported). Above ~3.5% is strong for an Indian bank.
19	Net interest income growth (Q4 FY26)	+5.0%	Neutral	Core interest income after interest expense was ₹14,457 crore, +5.0% year on year (standalone, as reported).
20	Net profit margin FY26	20.0%	Neutral	₹20.0 of every ₹100 of interest-led revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21	Return on equity FY26	13.2%	Neutral	FY26 profit was 13.2% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22	Leverage (assets ÷ equity)	9.0×	Neutral	Total assets were 9.0× equity — normal for banks, which fund most assets with deposits.
23	Return on assets FY26	1.36%	Neutral	Net profit was 1.36% of total assets. For banks, ROA above 1% is considered healthy.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	18%	Neutral	The company paid about 18% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25	Q4 FY26 standalone profit (reported)	₹7,071 cr (-0.6%)	Bearish	The bank's own (standalone) Jan–Mar 2026 profit as reported was ₹7,071 crore, -0.6% year on year.

D. Asset quality & capital

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Gross NPA (Q4 FY26)	1.23%	Bullish	Gross non-performing assets were 1.23% of loans — low by Indian standards.
27	Net NPA (Q4 FY26)	0.37%	Bullish	After provisions, net NPAs were 0.37% of loans.
28	CASA ratio	40.0%	Neutral	Low-cost current and savings deposits made up 40.0% of deposits — a higher CASA means cheaper funding.
29	Capital adequacy (CRAR)	16.42%	Bullish	Capital adequacy was 16.42%, comfortably above the RBI minimum of 11.5% (incl. buffer).
30	Loan (advances) growth	+19.0%	Bullish	Advances grew +19.0% year on year (as reported).
31	Deposit growth	+14.0%	Bullish	Deposits grew +14.0% year on year (as reported).
32	Deposit base (consolidated)	₹13.34 lakh cr	Neutral	Consolidated deposits were ₹13,33,791 crore at Mar 2026, +13.9% on a year earlier.
33	Book value growth	+14.8%	Bullish	Equity grew +14.8% to ₹2,15,036 crore — banks need book growth to support loan growth.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹-8,637 cr	Neutral	Operating cash flow was ₹-8,637 crore. For banks this swings with deposit and loan flows, so it says little about profitability.
35	Investing cash flow FY26	₹-45,068 cr	Neutral	Investing flows for banks mostly reflect securities and fixed-asset purchases.
36	Financing cash flow FY26	₹60,358 cr	Neutral	Financing flows reflect borrowings raised/repaid and dividends paid.
37	Net cash flow FY26	₹6,653 cr	Neutral	Overall cash and balances changed by ₹6,653 crore in FY26.
38	Investment book growth	+12.5%	Neutral	The investment portfolio (mostly government securities) moved +12.5% to ₹4,46,422 crore.
39	Loan growth minus deposit growth	+5.0 pts	Caution	Loans grew 19.0% and deposits 14.0%. When loans outpace deposits for long, banks must pay up for funding — a margin risk.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	1%	Neutral	The company paid out about 1% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	1% / 1% / 1%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.5%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.5% (₹619 cr → ₹622 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	8.14% (-0.04 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 8.14% at Mar 2026 versus 8.18% a year earlier.
44	Foreign institutional holding	42.04% (-1.90 pts YoY)	Bearish	FIIs held 42.04% at Mar 2026, down from 43.94% a year before.
45	Domestic institutional holding	43.35% (+2.48 pts YoY)	Bullish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 43.35%, up from 40.87%.
46	Number of shareholders	8.5 lakh (-8.6% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 9.4 lakh to 8.5 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	7/8	Bullish	Passed: positive profit, ROA ≥ 1%, gross NPA < 3%, net NPA < 1%, CRAR ≥ 14%, ROE ≥ 12%, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: profit grew.
49	Automated screen flags	2 strength(s) · 5 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company has delivered good profit growth of 29.6% CAGR over last 5 years; Company's working capital requirements have reduced from 49.4 days to 24.6 days. Weaknesses: Company has low interest coverage ratio; Promoter holding is low: 7.87%; Contingent liabilities of Rs.31,22,124 Cr; Company might be capitalizing the interest cost; Earnings include an other income of Rs.29,292 Cr. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50	Fundamental summary	14 bullish · 4 bearish · 30 neutral · 1 caution	Bullish	On the numbers published by 01 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture leaned positive. Valuation: P/E 16.1×, P/B 1.98×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 01 Apr 2026 – 01 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

16 Apr 2026 Axis Bank schedules board meeting on April 25 for Q4 FY26 results, dividend and fund-raising — The bank informed exchanges that its board would meet on April 25, 2026 to approve audited Q4/FY26 results, consider a final dividend and consider raising funds through equity and debt instruments. source
25 Apr 2026 Axis Bank Q4 FY26 standalone net profit Rs 7,071 crore, down 0.6% YoY; NII up 5% — NII rose 5% to Rs 14,457 crore and NIM was 3.62%; gross NPA improved to 1.23% and net NPA to 0.37%. Provisions rose to Rs 3,522 crore including an additional Rs 2,001 crore precautionary provision; a final dividend of Rs 1/share was recommended. source
27 Apr 2026 Axis Bank board approves fund-raise of up to Rs 55,000 crore; FY26 profit falls 7% — The board approved raising up to Rs 35,000 crore via debt and Rs 20,000 crore via equity or equity-linked instruments, subject to approvals. FY26 standalone PAT was Rs 24,457 crore (-7% YoY) and NII Rs 56,048 crore (+3%). source
24 Jun 2026 Axis Bank raises $800 million through dual-tranche dollar bond issue — The bank raised $500 million in AT1 perpetual bonds at a 6.875% coupon and $300 million in 5-year senior unsecured notes at 5.348%, under its Global Medium Term Note programme. source
29 Jun 2026 Axis Bank Co-CFO Puneet Sharma to step down by August 31 — Puneet Sharma, Co-Chief Financial Officer since March 2020, is leaving the bank effective August 31, 2026 to pursue other opportunities. source

What happened next (01 Jul 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹1,368.70 to ₹1,217.10 by 01 Oct 2026 (-11.1%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.6% — underperforming by 4.5 points.
Highest ₹1,375.50 on 02 Jul 2026; lowest ₹1,175.00 on 24 Sep 2026.
S1 1,345.00: broken on a closing basis on 03 Jul 2026.
S2 1,309.50: broken on a closing basis on 09 Jul 2026.
R1 1,391.10: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 20 Jul 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 18 Jul 2026): standalone profit ₹7,114 crore (+22.5% YoY), NIM 3.46%, gross NPA 1.28%, net NPA 0.39%.

Later news

13 Jul 2026 Crisil reaffirms Axis Bank's debt ratings at AAA/Stable — Crisil reaffirmed Crisil AAA/Stable on most bonds and AA+/Stable on Tier I instruments, citing healthy capitalisation and strong market position while noting average asset quality. source
18 Jul 2026 Axis Bank Q1 FY27 net profit rises 23% YoY to Rs 7,114 crore; NII up 8% — NII was Rs 14,646 crore and NIM 3.46%; gross NPA was 1.28% and net NPA 0.39%. Advances grew 19% and deposits 18% YoY; capital adequacy was 16.67%. source
20 Jul 2026 Axis Bank shares fall about 6% despite higher Q1 profit — The stock fell from Rs 1,328.50 to an intraday low of Rs 1,249.10 on NSE, with reports attributing the decline to continued pressure on net interest margin, which fell to 3.46% from 3.62% in Q4. source
31 Jul 2026 Axis Bank shareholders approve all 18 resolutions at 32nd AGM — Shareholders approved the FY26 accounts and Rs 1 dividend, director re-appointments, and enabling resolutions to raise up to Rs 35,000 crore in debt and Rs 20,000 crore in equity. source

Educational summary. On 01 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture leaned positive. Over the next three months the stock moved -11.1% against -6.6% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Axis Bank today.

Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 04 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50, Nifty Bank via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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