Pharmaceuticals Historical case study · data as of 01 Jul 2026 · published 04 Oct 2026 (95 days later)

Cipla — 100-point case study

How Cipla looked on 50 technical and 50 fundamental measures on 01 Jul 2026 — and what happened over the next three months. Education only; not a current view.

Codes	NSE: CIPLA · BSE: 500087
Close on 01 Jul 2026	₹1,456.70
Market cap then	₹1,17,683 crore
Valuation	P/E 30.5× · P/B 3.42×
Momentum	RSI (14) 67 · 1-year return -3.9%
Next 3 months	-7.7% vs Nifty 50 -6.6% (to 01 Oct 2026)

Scorecard

Technical — 50 points

23 bullish · 19 neutral · 1 caution · 6 bearish — the picture leaned positive.

Fundamental — 50 points

9 bullish · 32 neutral · 0 caution · 8 bearish — the picture was mixed.

Price chart

Close (to snapshot) Close (after) 50-day avg 200-day avg Support Resistance

Technical analysis — 50 points

Calculated by code from daily prices up to 01 Jul 2026. Standard formulas (RSI, MACD, ADX use Wilder smoothing).

A. Trend

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	Short-term trend (20 days)	slope +0.28%/day	Bullish	Over the last 20 sessions the regression line of closing prices was rising about 0.28% a day — a short-term uptrend.
2	Medium-term trend (~5 months)	3M return +17.1%	Bullish	The 100-session trend line was up (+0.09%/day) and the stock was +17.1% over three months, so the medium-term picture was bullish.
3	Long-term trend (1 year)	1Y return -3.9%	Neutral	Compared with a year earlier the price was -3.9%. Little net progress over twelve months.
4	Weekly chart trend	10W 1,392.82 / 30W 1,364.19	Bullish	On the weekly chart the stock showed a weekly close above a rising 10-week and 30-week average stack.
5	Swing structure (highs/lows)	last highs 1,444.50→1,432.00; lows 1,354.00→1,341.10	Bearish	The two most recent swing points showed lower swing highs and lower swing lows — classic downtrend structure.
6	ADX (14) — trend strength	24.7	Bullish	ADX at 24.7 shows a trend of moderate strength. ADX measures strength only, not direction.
7	+DI vs –DI	+DI 30.5 / –DI 12.4	Bullish	+DI was above –DI: upward price pressure outweighed downward pressure.

B. Moving averages

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
8	Price vs 20-day SMA	1,400.24 (+4.0%)	Bullish	Close of 1,456.70 was 4.0% above the 20-day SMA — the short-term trend filter was positive.
9	Price vs 50-day SMA	1,370.96 (+6.3%)	Bullish	Close of 1,456.70 was 6.3% above the 50-day SMA — the medium-term trend filter was positive.
10	Price vs 200-day SMA	1,419.57 (+2.6%)	Bullish	Close of 1,456.70 was 2.6% above the 200-day SMA — the long-term trend filter was positive.
11	9 / 21 EMA crossover	9E 1,432.32 / 21E 1,408.77	Bullish	The 9-day EMA was above the 21-day EMA; the last crossover happened on 22 Jun 2026.
12	Golden / death cross (50 vs 200)	no cross in data window	Bearish	The 50-day average was 3.4% below the 200-day. No 50/200 crossover occurred in the data window.
13	50-day SMA slope	+5.3% in 20 sessions	Bullish	The 50-day average rose 5.3% over the past month — rising.
14	MA ribbon alignment	1,400 / 1,371 / 1,331 / 1,420	Neutral	The 20/50/100/200-day averages were tangled — no clean order, typical of a transition or range.
15	Monthly anchored VWAP	1,458.27 (-0.1%)	Bearish	Anchored to the start of July, the volume-weighted average price was 1,458.27; the close was below it — buyers that month were on average under water.

C. Momentum

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
16	RSI (14)	66.6	Bullish	RSI at 66.6 showed positive momentum without being overbought.
17	RSI divergence (last 40 days)	bearish divergence	Caution	Comparing the last 20 sessions with the 20 before: bearish divergence: price made a higher high but RSI made a lower high.
18	MACD line vs signal	MACD 22.36 / signal 15.29	Bullish	MACD was above its signal line — momentum turning or staying positive.
19	MACD histogram (5-day change)	2.88 → 7.08	Bullish	The histogram rose over the last five sessions, meaning momentum was improving.
20	MACD vs zero line	22.36	Bullish	MACD above zero means the 12-day EMA was above the 26-day EMA — a positive momentum regime.
21	Stochastic (14,3,3)	%K 78.9 / %D 79.8	Bearish	Slow stochastic at 78.9 was mid-range with %K below %D.
22	Williams %R (14)	-22.4	Neutral	%R of -22.4 put the close in the middle of its 14-day range.
23	CCI (20)	128	Bullish	CCI at 128 signalled an unusually strong upward deviation (>+100).
24	Rate of change (10-day)	+6.1%	Bullish	Price changed +6.1% over ten sessions.

D. Volatility

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
25	Bollinger Band position (%B)	%B 0.89 (bands 1,327.94–1,472.55)	Neutral	%B of 0.89 — inside the bands, upper half.
26	Bollinger width / squeeze	width 10.3% (52nd pct of 6M)	Neutral	Band width was at the 52nd percentile of the last six months, a normal level.
27	ATR (14)	₹30.59 (2.1% of price)	Neutral	A typical day's range was about ₹30.59, or 2.1% of the price — useful for judging how much 'normal noise' to expect.
28	Historical volatility (30-day)	18.4% vs 1Y 21.3%	Neutral	Annualised 30-day volatility was 18.4%, close to the one-year level of 21.3%.
29	Keltner Channel (20, 2×ATR)	1,348.10–1,472.35	Neutral	The close was inside the channel, so no volatility breakout.
30	Beta vs Nifty 50 (1Y daily)	0.61	Neutral	A beta of 0.61 means the stock tended to move less than the Nifty 50 day to day.

E. Volume & money flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
31	Volume vs 20-day average	last day 0.43× / 5-day 1.28×	Neutral	The final session traded 0.43× its 20-day average volume and the last five sessions averaged 1.28× — heavier than usual participation.
32	Up-day vs down-day volume (20d)	ratio 1.61	Bullish	Average volume on up days was 1.61× that on down days — accumulation-leaning.
33	On-Balance Volume (20d)	OBV rising	Bullish	OBV rose over the month while price rose — volume confirmed the price move.
34	Accumulation/Distribution line	falling (20d)	Bearish	The A/D line fell, meaning closes tended to be in the lower part of daily ranges on meaningful volume.
35	Chaikin Money Flow (20)	-0.10	Bearish	CMF at -0.10 indicated net outflows.
36	Money Flow Index (14)	73.8	Bullish	MFI, a volume-weighted RSI, was 73.8.
37	Liquidity (avg daily turnover)	₹245 cr/day	Neutral	About ₹245 crore changed hands per day on average over 20 sessions — liquid.

F. Price levels

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
38	Support levels (S1/S2/S3)	1,392.00 / 1,355.40 / 1,294.47	Neutral	Nearest support (prior swing lows) sat at 1,392.00, 4.6% below the close, then 1,355.40, 1,294.47.
39	Resistance levels (R1/R2/R3)	1,469.40 / 1,532.06 / 1,585.90	Neutral	Nearest resistance (prior swing highs) sat at 1,469.40, 0.9% above the close, then 1,532.06, 1,585.90.
40	Monthly pivot points (for next month)	P 1,458.27 \| R1 1,470.53 \| S1 1,444.43	Neutral	Classic pivots from July's high/low/close gave a pivot of 1,458.27; the close was below it.
41	Fibonacci retracement (6M swing)	23.6% 1,254 \| 38.2% 1,309 \| 50.0% 1,353 \| 61.8% 1,397	Neutral	Measuring the 6-month fall from 1,539.70 to 1,165.70, the close was nearest the 61.8% retracement at 1,396.83.
42	52-week high / low	H 1,673.00 / L 1,165.70	Neutral	The close was 12.9% below the 52-week high and 25.0% above the 52-week low.
43	Unfilled price gaps (6M)	3 open; latest gap-up 23 Jun at 1,418.20	Neutral	There were 3 unfilled gap(s). The latest, a gap-up on 23 Jun 2026, left an open level at 1,418.20 that price had not revisited.

G. Patterns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
44	Price structure / chart pattern	rising channel	Bullish	Rule-based pattern scan: rising channel — successive higher highs and lows. (Classical patterns like head-and-shoulders are judgement calls; we report only what the rules detect.)
45	Breakout / breakdown (20-day)	range 1,341.10–1,490.10	Neutral	The close was inside the prior 20-day range of 1,341.10–1,490.10.
46	Latest candlestick	Ordinary red candle	Neutral	On 01 Jul the candle opened 1,468.00, ranged 1,446.00–1,472.10 and closed 1,456.70: Ordinary red candle. Single candles are weak signals on their own.
47	Ichimoku Cloud	cloud 1,305.10–1,346.42; Tenkan 1,418.35 / Kijun 1,415.60	Bullish	Price was above the cloud and the Tenkan line was above the Kijun line — a bullish Ichimoku setup.

H. Relative strength & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Relative strength vs Nifty 50	1M +2.1% / 3M +14.1%	Bullish	The stock outperformed the Nifty 50 by 14.1 points over three months and outperformed by 2.1 points over one month.
49	Relative strength vs Nifty 50 (6M)	6M +4.6%	Bullish	No sector index in today's data set, so we show the 6-month comparison instead: 4.6 points ahead of the Nifty 50.
50	Technical summary	23 bullish · 6 bearish · 19 neutral · 1 caution	Bullish	Across the 49 readings the technical picture leaned positive. Levels that mattered: support 1,392.00, resistance 1,469.40. This is a description of the chart on 01 Jul 2026, not a forecast.

Fundamental analysis — 50 points

Uses only results published by 01 Jul 2026: FY26 annual (Apr 2025–Mar 2026), the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter and the Mar 2026 shareholding. ₹ crore, consolidated unless stated. Valuation uses the 01 Jul 2026 close.

A. Valuation

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
1	P/E (trailing 12 months)	30.5×	Neutral	At ₹1,456.70 the market valued the company at about ₹1,17,683 crore, or 30.5× the ₹3,862 crore profit of the four quarters to Mar 2026. That is a premium multiple — the market expected growth.
2	Price / Book	3.42×	Neutral	Market cap was 3.42× the Mar 2026 book value (equity + reserves) of ₹34,432 crore.
3	Price / Sales	4.18×	Neutral	The company was valued at 4.18× its trailing-12-month sales of ₹28,161 crore.
4	EV / EBITDA (approx.)	20.1×	Neutral	Enterprise value (market cap + ₹614 cr borrowings; cash not netted) was 20.1× trailing operating profit of ₹5,883 crore.
5	Earnings yield	3.3%	Neutral	The inverse of P/E: each ₹100 invested bought about ₹3.3 of annual earnings. Investors often compare this with the ~6–7% yield on 10-year government bonds.
6	PEG (P/E ÷ 3-yr profit CAGR)	2.80	Bearish	P/E of 30.5 divided by 3-year profit growth of 10.9% a year gives a PEG of 2.80. Below 1 is often read as growth being cheaply priced; above 2 as expensive.
7	Dividend yield (trailing 12M)	0.89%	Neutral	Dividends with ex-dates in the 12 months to the snapshot totalled ₹13 a share, a 0.89% yield on the ₹1,456.70 price.
8	Market capitalisation	₹1,17,683 cr	Neutral	At about ₹1.18 lakh crore the company was a large-cap.
9	Graham number vs price	₹677.07 vs ₹1,456.70	Neutral	Benjamin Graham's conservative fair-value yardstick √(22.5 × EPS × book value per share) came to ₹677.07; the price was 115% above it. Quality franchises usually trade above this number.

B. Growth

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
10	Revenue growth FY26 (YoY)	+2.2%	Neutral	Revenue for FY26 was ₹28,163 crore, +2.2% versus FY25.
11	Q4 FY26 revenue growth (YoY)	-2.8%	Bearish	The Jan–Mar 2026 quarter brought ₹6,541 crore of revenue, -2.8% on the same quarter a year earlier.
12	Net profit growth FY26 (YoY)	-26.7%	Bearish	FY26 net profit was ₹3,862 crore, -26.7% on FY25's ₹5,269 crore.
13	Q4 FY26 profit growth (YoY)	-55.3%	Bearish	Quarterly profit was ₹543 crore versus ₹1,214 crore a year earlier (-55.3%).
14	Revenue CAGR (3 years)	7.4%	Neutral	Revenue compounded at 7.4% a year from FY23 to FY26.
15	Profit CAGR (3 years)	10.9%	Neutral	Net profit compounded at 10.9% a year from FY23 to FY26.
16	Revenue CAGR (5 years)	8.0%	Neutral	Over five years (FY21–FY26) revenue compounded at 8.0% a year.
17	EPS growth FY26 (reported)	-26.4%	Bearish	Reported EPS went from ₹65.28 to ₹48.02 (-26.4%). Differences from profit growth come from changes in share count (bonus, buyback, new issues).

C. Profitability

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
18	Operating margin FY26	21%	Neutral	Operating profit (EBITDA) was 21% of sales in FY26 versus 26% in FY25.
19	Operating margin trend (4 quarters)	26% → 25% → 18% → 15%	Bearish	Quarterly margins moved from 26% to 15% over the last four quarters — contracting.
20	Net profit margin FY26	13.7%	Neutral	₹13.7 of every ₹100 of revenue ended up as net profit in FY26.
21	Return on equity FY26	11.8%	Neutral	FY26 profit was 11.8% of average shareholders' equity. Above ~15% is generally considered good; below 10% weak.
22	ROCE FY26	15%	Neutral	Return on capital employed (debt + equity) was 15% in FY26.
23	Return on assets FY26	9.12%	Neutral	Net profit was 9.12% of total assets.
24	Effective tax rate FY26	26%	Neutral	The company paid about 26% of pre-tax profit as tax; India's base corporate rate is ~25%.
25	Other income share of pre-tax profit	12%	Neutral	Non-operating 'other income' of ₹606 crore made up 12% of pre-tax profit.

D. Balance sheet

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
26	Debt / equity	0.02	Bullish	Borrowings of ₹614 crore were 0.02× equity — very low leverage.
27	Debt / EBITDA	0.10×	Bullish	Debt equalled 0.10 years of FY26 operating profit.
28	Interest coverage	97.7×	Bullish	Earnings before interest and tax covered interest cost 97.7 times.
29	Book value growth	+10.4%	Bullish	Shareholders' equity grew +10.4% from ₹31,194 crore to ₹34,432 crore in FY26.
30	Capital work in progress	₹2,042 cr (16% of fixed assets)	Neutral	Projects under construction (CWIP) were 16% of fixed assets — a modest pipeline.
31	Working capital days	106 days	Neutral	Working capital tied up equalled 106 days of sales (FY25: 128). Negative means suppliers/customers fund operations.
32	Cash conversion cycle	202 days	Neutral	It took 202 days to turn inventory and receivables into cash, net of supplier credit.
33	Debtor days	73 (FY25 73)	Neutral	Customers took 73 days on average to pay, versus 73 a year earlier.

E. Cash flow

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
34	Operating cash flow FY26	₹3,940 cr	Neutral	The business generated ₹3,940 crore of operating cash in FY26 versus ₹5,005 crore in FY25.
35	Free cash flow FY26	₹928 cr	Bullish	After capital spending, free cash flow was ₹928 crore.
36	Cash conversion (CFO ÷ net profit)	1.02×	Bullish	Operating cash flow was 1.02× reported profit — profits were well backed by cash.
37	Free-cash-flow yield	0.8%	Neutral	FY26 free cash flow was 0.8% of the snapshot market cap.
38	Free cash flow — 3-year total	₹7,237 cr	Bullish	Free cash flow over FY24–FY26 added up to ₹7,237 crore.
39	Capex FY26 (CFO – FCF)	₹3,012 cr	Neutral	Implied capital expenditure was about ₹3,012 crore, 10.7% of sales.

F. Dividends & shareholder returns

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
40	Dividend payout ratio FY26	27%	Neutral	The company paid out about 27% of FY26 profit as dividends.
41	Dividend consistency (3 years)	25% / 25% / 27%	Bullish	Payout ratios for FY24 / FY25 / FY26 — dividends were paid every year.
42	Share capital change (FY25→FY26)	+0.0%	Neutral	Paid-up equity capital changed +0.0% (₹162 cr → ₹162 cr). Essentially unchanged — no dilution.

G. Ownership

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
43	Promoter holding	29.22% (+0.02 pts YoY)	Neutral	Promoters owned 29.22% at Mar 2026 versus 29.20% a year earlier.
44	Foreign institutional holding	22.55% (-3.73 pts YoY)	Bearish	FIIs held 22.55% at Mar 2026, down from 26.28% a year before.
45	Domestic institutional holding	31.71% (+3.82 pts YoY)	Bullish	Mutual funds, insurers and other DIIs held 31.71%, up from 27.89%.
46	Number of shareholders	5.8 lakh (+7.5% YoY)	Neutral	The shareholder count moved from 5.4 lakh to 5.8 lakh in a year — a rough gauge of retail interest.
47	Promoter pledge	none reported	Neutral	Our source showed no pledged promoter shares.

H. Quality & summary

#	Point	Reading	Tag	Commentary
48	Financial health checklist (Piotroski-style, 8 tests)	4/8	Bearish	Passed: positive profit, positive operating cash flow, CFO > net profit, no meaningful dilution (<3%). Failed: leverage fell, operating margin improved, ROA improved, asset turnover improved.
49	Automated screen flags	2 strength(s) · 2 weakness(es)	Neutral	Strengths: Company maintains nearly zero debt levels; Consistent dividend payouts at 25.7% of profits. Weaknesses: Revenue growth averaged just 8.01% over five years; Promoter shareholding declined 4.24% in the last three years. (Flags generated by the data source’s rule screen.)
50	Fundamental summary	9 bullish · 8 bearish · 32 neutral · 0 caution	Neutral	On the numbers published by 01 Jul 2026 the fundamental picture was mixed. Valuation: P/E 30.5×, P/B 3.42×. This describes the data, not a recommendation.

News in the three months before the snapshot

Company news from 01 Apr 2026 – 01 Jul 2026 that an investor could have known on the snapshot date.

23 Apr 2026 Cipla gets US FDA approval for generic Ventolin HFA (albuterol) inhaler — Cipla USA received US FDA approval for Albuterol Sulfate Inhalation Aerosol 90 mcg, its first AB-rated generic of GSK's Ventolin HFA; shares rose over 4% intraday. source
13 May 2026 Cipla Q4 FY26 net profit falls about 55% YoY; Rs 13 final dividend recommended — Q4 FY26 revenue was Rs 6,541 crore (down ~2.8% YoY) and net profit about Rs 555 crore (down ~55% YoY), with EBITDA margin at 14.6%; FY26 revenue grew ~2.2%. The board recommended a final dividend of Rs 13 per share. source
14 May 2026 Cipla shares rise about 8% after Q4 results on India growth and FY27 guidance — Shares rose despite the profit fall as investors focused on ~15% domestic growth, a US sales target for FY27 and EBITDA margin guidance of 18.5-20% for FY27. source
11 Jun 2026 US FDA classifies Cipla's Goa plant inspection as Voluntary Action Indicated — The US FDA classified its April 6-17, 2026 GMP and pre-approval inspection of Cipla's Verna, Goa facility as VAI, meaning no further regulatory action is required at this stage. source
17 Jun 2026 Cipla appoints Shivam Puri as CEO of One India Business — Shivam Puri, MD and CEO of Cipla Health, was appointed CEO of the One India Business effective July 1, 2026. source
22 Jun 2026 Cipla shares jump about 4% after five-day decline — Shares rose ~4% intraday on 22 June, with reports citing the Goa VAI classification, the One India CEO appointment and ESOP grants as background. source

What happened next (01 Jul 2026 → 01 Oct 2026)

Price went from ₹1,456.70 to ₹1,344.00 by 01 Oct 2026 (-7.7%) while the Nifty 50 moved -6.6% — underperforming by 1.1 points.
Highest ₹1,491.20 on 29 Jul 2026; lowest ₹1,333.40 on 01 Oct 2026.
S1 1,392.00: broken on a closing basis on 04 Sep 2026.
S2 1,355.40: broken on a closing basis on 15 Sep 2026.
R1 1,469.40: cleared on a closing basis on 06 Jul 2026.
R2 1,532.06: not cleared on a closing basis.
200-day SMA: price was above it at the snapshot and crossed below on 23 Jul 2026.
Apr–Jun 2026 results (reported 23 Jul 2026): revenue ₹7,119 crore (+2.3% YoY), net profit ₹786 crore (-39.2% YoY), operating margin 17% vs 26% a year earlier (Screener consolidated figures).

Later news

23 Jul 2026 Cipla Q1 FY27: revenue Rs 7,119 crore, net profit down 39% YoY but up 42% QoQ — For the June 2026 quarter, revenue from operations was Rs 7,119 crore (+2% YoY, +9% QoQ) and net profit about Rs 789 crore (-39% YoY, +42% QoQ); EBITDA margin was about 16.7%. source
24 Jul 2026 Cipla shares rise after Q1; brokerages split on US outlook — Shares gained ~3.7% intraday the day after results; margins missed some estimates, with some brokerages positive on the US pipeline and others flagging execution risk on North America targets. source
28 Jul 2026 Cipla receives US FDA approval for generic Advair Diskus — Cipla received US FDA approval for generic Advair Diskus (fluticasone/salmeterol) in all three strengths, its first dry powder inhaler approval from its New York facility, with launch planned in Q2 FY27. source
19 Aug 2026 NCLT approves amalgamation of Inzpera Healthsciences with Cipla — NCLT Mumbai approved on 18 Aug 2026 the merger of wholly owned subsidiary Inzpera Healthsciences into Cipla, effective April 1, 2026; no new shares are issued. source

Educational summary. On 01 Jul 2026 the technical picture leaned positive and the fundamental picture was mixed. Over the next three months the stock moved -7.7% against -6.6% for the Nifty 50. Here the chart's message did not line up neatly with what followed — a reminder that indicators describe the past, not the future. One case proves nothing on its own; the value is in seeing many cases over time. This page does not say whether to buy, sell or hold Cipla today.

Method designed by Pawan Kumar Sharma, CPA · ACCA · CIA. Numbers are computed by our engine from the sources listed below.

Sources: daily prices — Yahoo Finance history pages; financials and shareholding — Screener.in (fetched 04 Oct 2026); index — Nifty 50 via Yahoo Finance; news — linked articles. Calculations by Manage Our Finance. Report a correction

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